Terms like “mini tornado” or “weak tornado” leave me a little baffled. I mean, that’s like saying “little great white shark” or “diminutive stealth bomber” — using the term “little” doesn’t much change your circumstances. As a meteorologist however, I know there are indeed tornadoes of varying degree. In fact, the Enhanced Fujita Scale is used to classify tornadoes from F0 to F5. The scale represents increasing degrees of damage based on the estimation of wind speeds and post-storm surveys of damage. So yes, “weak tornado” is a valid term and one that can be defined, but that doesn’t mean you want one to visit your neighborhood.

Still, I don’t just look the other way when the media uses the term “weak” or “mini” when it comes to tornadoes and, sure enough, the term was used like salt on grits when a tornado crashed through the town of Townsville in Queensland, Australia earlier today (yesterday, local time) on the northeastern coast of Australia. ABC News, News.Com.Au, The Australian, The HearaldSun, Yahoo, AdelaidNow and more all picked up on the term, though it’s impossible for me to tell who used it first.

The so-called mini tornado caused roof damage to more than 60 homes around Townsville, in Queensland, Australia. Click to enlarge. Photo: Department of Community Safety

Not to move too far away from the Townsville tornado, but it’s telling how the media sometimes works. Like every other form of business over the last 15-20 years, the media has been slashed, chopped and streamlined, doing more with less and often picking up a story and running with it before all the facts are proofed. I saw a story a month or so ago about turbulence and how it affected a Qantas Airbus A380 and injured its passengers — the photo with the story was that of a Boeing 747 (one double-decker plane with a kangaroo on the tail looks just like another, I suppose). The same story from yet another source included a file photo of a Boeing 767.

In similar fashion, one of the news sources for the Townsville tornado (PanArmenian) grabbed a stock photo of a tornado from their file — and it’s a monster! Looks like it’s right off the plains of Oklahoma or Kansas: classic shape and funnel, rain shaft and the afternoon sun over a grassy field. The only thing missing is Dorothy.  The photo was immediately below the headline,  “Devastating ‘Mini-Tornado’ Tears Through Northern Australian City.” Does that look anything at all like a “mini-tornado” to you? According to the article, Australian meteorologists stated the storm could not be classified as a tornado because their was no funnel — yet the picture (and the headline) stands.

Do the headline and photo do justice to the actual situation? If the photo is obviously wrong for the story, might other facts be wrong as well? Click to enlarge. Photo: PanArmenian

I don’t mean to make light of the tornado in northeastern Australia by any means. 13 people were injured, three sent to the hospital and more than 60 homes were damaged. Additionally, trees were snapped in half, power lines were downed and heavy rainfall resulted in localized flash flooding. All of this thanks to a low pressure area centered over Queensland.

As in America, Australia is going through a seasonal transition, weather-wise. Their summer is fading as ours is beginning. As I write this, severe weather is slashing the Plains from Texas to Kansas. In fact, a tornado warning was issued by the local National Weather Service office for a storm with tornado potential just 12 miles from the ImpactWeather office. Strange to think the same thing is happening on the other side of the world, yet this time of year the same thing is happening all over the world: colder air is driving toward the equator and, as it eventually will, encounters the warm humid air closer to the center of the planet. As we know, whether it’s Oklahoma or Queensland, where those air masses clash severe weather may result. Sometimes the tornadoes are “mini” and sometimes they’re monsters.

This time of year, severe weather is not confined to the United States. A low pressure center over Queensland triggered a storm that caused damage throughout the town of Townsville. Some are calling the damage the result of a small tornado. Click to enlarge. Image: ImpactWeather

The weather has been so pleasant here on the Gulf Coast for the last several days. It’s difficult to believe there’s still a month of winter yet to go. In fact, much of the globe is enjoying a bit of a break from extreme weather. And though that term can be subjective to many, ImpactWeather’s Gmaps reveals there are currently only a few global hazards:

ImpactWeather Gmaps reveals few global weather hazards. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps.

In Europe, an area of low pressure over the western Mediterranean Sea will move eastward Friday across Sicily and the Ionian Sea, and towards southern Greece and Turkey by Saturday. This low pressure area will strengthen slightly as it shifts eastward, and will bring the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds to the area. Rainfall amounts each day of 1-3 inches, isolated 4+ inches will be possible, which could lead to flash flooding problems. In addition, winds of 25-35 mph, gusts to 45 mph will be possible, especially for coastal locations.

The Greek Isles, southern Italy and western Turkey have flash flooding and wind concerns today, tomorrow and Saturday. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps.

In the Indian Ocean, warm waters have generated three tropical cyclones. Tropical Cyclone Bingiza is located near 21.2S/43.7E, or near Morondava, Madagascar. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph, gusts 50 mph. Movement is to the south at about 7 mph. Bingiza has made a second landfall across southwestern Madagascar and should begin weakening over the next few days as it remains over land. Heavy rainfall will remain possible for the next few days across western and southern Madagascar. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches, isolated 8+ inches, will be common. Locations that have received recent heavy rainfall will remain at an elevated flooding threat. High rainfall totals have been observed over the last few days across northwest and southeast Madagascar.

Three topical cyclones exist in the warm waters of the southern Indian Ocean: Bingiza, Dianne and Carlos. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps.

Tropical Cyclone Dianne is currently located near 19.2S/110.5E, or about 300 miles northwest of Learmonth, Western Australia. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, gusts 80 mph. Movement is very slow to the southeast at about 3 mph. Dianne should soon begin tracking in a general southerly to south-southeasterly direction and continue this motion for the next several days. It is forecast to remain just offshore of Western Australia, but could bring gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall to coastal locations as it passes by.

At 0300 UTC, Tropical Cyclone Carlos was located near 14.1S/130.5E, or about 125 miles south of Darwin. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph, gusts 45 mph. Carlos is drifting slowly southward. This cyclone is over land in the Northern Territory and is expected to remain inland over the next few days as it drifts to the southwest. However, the center is close enough to sea that it will draw some energy from the warm water. Therefore, it may take a full day or two for Carlos to weaken to a depression. The heaviest rain is forecast to remain offshore, however some bands of very heavy rain may still impact parts of Northern Territory, and northern Western Australia, with rainfall amounts generally between 2-6 inches expected, however higher isolated amounts to 8-12 inches will be possible along the coast from Cape Londonderry to the Dampier Peninsula.

In the U.S. an upper-level trough over the West Coast is bringing cold air to the area, producing locally heavy rain and snow from northern into central California. In higher elevations, peak accumulations of 18-24 inches of snow are possible today. Snow will linger over the Sierra Nevadas of California and Nevada on Friday with another 12-18 inches possible over higher elevations.

Winter storms in the western U.S. will bring periods of heavy snow to California and Colorado. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps.

In addition, periods of snow and strong winds will continue across the mountains of southwest Colorado and extreme southeast Utah today before ending tonight. Additional snowfall accumulations of 5-10 inches will be possible above 8000 feet, with lesser amounts at lower levels. However, strong winds of 25-35 mph, gusts 60 mph, will create areas of blowing and drifting snow and possibly cause mountain road closures.

As for the rest of the nation, a well-deserved if only temporary reprieve…

In YourWeatherBlog last week we talked about the devastating floods that hit Australia and today the government is saying it could be the country’s most expensive natural disaster to date. However, it’s not just Australia that’s dealing with disastrous floods. Heavy rain has also fallen in Brazil causing devastating floods and landslides. So far more than 625 people have been killed and officials said at least 14,000 are homeless.

Catastrophic floods and landslides hit Brazil. Photo: AP

The rain doesn’t look to end anytime soon as a stationary front will continue to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms to southeastern Brazil the next few days. This includes the Rio de Janeiro area. Daily rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, isolated 4 inches, will be possible, especially west of Rio de Janeiro. Areas that have received the recent heavy rains will be at an increased threat of flooding and landslides. In addition, a few of the stronger storms could become severe with frequent lightning and gusty winds the main threats.

Rio de Janeiro will continue to see periods of heavy rain the next few days. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps 2.0

Rio de Janeiro has a tropical savanna climate and their rainy season typically runs from December to March, so it’s pretty typical this time of year that they get long periods of heavy rain. What makes this year different is there was a strong cold front that actually intensified the heavy rains across the area. In just eight hours, the Rio area received a month’s worth of rain and this is what caused the catastrophic flooding and landslides. Hundreds of military personnel have been sent out to clear the roads, distribute food and also to recover bodies. Rio Governor Sergio Cabral has declared a state of emergency in at least seven municipalities.

Photo: AFP

Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps 2.0

Weeks of heavy rain have caused catastrophic flooding and landslides in the Philippines. Photo: AP

Hopefully the Philippines, Brazil and Australia will get a break from the rain soon. They’ll certainly be in our thoughts as the cleanup and recovery efforts begin.

There’s been a lot of talk this winter about La Niña and El Niño. La Niña’s making it cold someplace and El Niño’s making it wet someplace else. For example, Australia’s current flooding is being blamed on a strong La Niña. La Niña? El Niño? Which is which? And, which causes what, to where, and to whom. They’re very different, yet similar; they’re opposite, yet confusingly alike. How do you keep them separate? And what do they mean?

Sleeping la niña. Calm and cool. Photo: Flickr.

At the risk of being sexist, I’ll let you in on my clarification secret. “El Niño” is the little boy or little baby (masculine) in Spanish, while “La Niña” is Spanish for the little girl or little baby (feminine). With that in mind, I always picture a screaming little boy when I hear El Niño (fitting?) and a calm, sleeping little girl when I hear La Niña (not always so fitting!). Of course, screaming baby boys would likely be jumping up and down, wouldn’t they? Just like the up and down drafts within thunderstorms. And there’s my association! El Niño, a cyclical warming of the eastern and central Pacific waters near the equator, is responsible for active weather (enhanced and more numerous thunderstorms) in the eastern Pacific. In the winter this translates to more cloudcover over North America (with many areas cooler and wetter), while in the summer it tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. Conversely, cooler waters in the eastern Pacific, aka La Niña, lead to less active weather in this region (drier and cooler) and drier and warmer weather across the southern U.S.A.

La Niña impacts by region. Image: Wikipedia.

Where do we stand today? It’s cloudy and unusually cold in Houston at this writing. Not exactly the stuff of La Niña, yet eastern Pacific waters are cooler than normal allowing western Pacific waters to be warmer than normal which, in turn, allows abundant precipitation across equatorial waters of the western Pacific. Translation? Classic La Niña. Look no further than recent headlines and postings from YourWeatherBlog to confirm the widespread flooding across eastern Australia.

For more detail on the current La Niña which, depending on which data set you study, can be considered one of the strongest of recorded history, I talked to ImpactWeather’s StormWatch manager and our lead long-range meteorologist Fred Schmude. “If you base [La Niña's strength] on the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), it is one of the strongest. However, if you base it on the magnitude of the temperature anomaly, now in the Niño 3.4 region, then it’s not nearly the strongest.  The winter seasons of 1955-56, 1973-74, and 1988-89 were all clearly colder.  Also the seasons of 1970-71, 1975-76, 1998-99 and 1999-2000 were just as cold if not colder than this season, as well.”

[The Niño regions are divided up into four main parts, named Niño 3.0, Niño 4.0, Niño 3.4 (most critical) and Niño 1.2.]

Warmer coloring of tropical waters represent temperatures warmer than normal (El Niño). January, 2007 Sea Surface Temperature Anomoly. Image: NOAA.

Another La Niña trait is rising sea water levels in the western Pacific (colder ocean waters are more dense and sink; less dense warmer waters will rise). Warmer waters coupled with a persistent trough of low pressure over eastern Australia keep atmospheric moisture levels high. According to Fred, “With that in mind, I think there is something else going on in the worldwide weather pattern not directly related to La Niña which is causing the flooding in Australia.  Overall the worldwide weather pattern is locked in place not only over Australia, but over other parts of the globe which is causing some extreme weather, including the western European winter storms and the eastern U.S. blizzards and severe cold. The reason for the locked pattern is a mystery that can’t be solved so easily.  Over Australia, well above normal water levels are surrounding the continent — which is not unusual when you consider we are dealing with a La Niña and a negative phase of the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) which shifts warm water over the western Pacific and cool water over the eastern Pacific.  In addition to this, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) has been stuck over the western Pacific for months — further aggravating the problem when you consider the MJO is responsible for creating an environment suitable for widespread thunderstorm development.  As a result, the combination of a locked weather pattern, a strong La Niña, a nearly stagnant MJO over the western Pacific and very warm water surrounding the continent have resulted in a deadly quartet over Australia. I partly blame the strong La Niña for the problems there, but more importantly the MJO and the locked weather pattern are the main culprits.”

January 2011 Sea Surface Temperature Anomoly. Blue coloring across tropical waters represent temperatures cooler than normal (La Niña). Warmer waters surrounding Australia are at least partially to blame for the abundant rain. Image: NOAA.

So it’s not an easily answered question. World climate patterns with regionalized and local effects are still being studied and pondered. Decades ago, it was El Niño and La Niña that seemed so complicated. Today the baby seems to be one of the more understood aspects of global climate, but nobody who knows what they’re talking about ever said it was easy.

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Yesterday, Dave brought you the latest information on the Australian floods and today I’d like to show you an image captured from the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite. Notice the muddy brown flood waters inundating the city.

This is a view from space on January 9, 2011 showing the extent of the floodwaters near the Queensland coast. Image: NASA’S Earth Observing Satellite (Advanced Land Imager)

Heavy rain will continue across southeastern Australia and Tasmania over the next few days as a trough of low pressure stalls over the area. The heaviest rain is expected across portions of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania through Friday, local. Daily rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible which could result in more flash flooding.

It doesn’t look like the weather will improve over the area anytime soon and this definitely isn’t good news, especially when some of the highways are already expected to be underwater for quite some time. Authorities in Brisbane told residents to evacuate in anticipation of the worst flooding in several decades.

We blogged about the widespread flooding across eastern Australia last week. Frankly, even writing about the flooding then seemed like writing about the horse that was already out of the barn. But the rain there continues to fall and the flooding continues to cause incredible damage with hundreds of people homeless, lost, feared dead or dead. The headline from Brisbane today comparing Monday’s flooding to a tsunami confirms the flooding is not yesterday’s news.

This Reuters photo shows a car pinned to a bridge by receding flood waters.

In fact, weeks of flooding has befallen eastern Australia. Low pressure troughs seem to park themselves over the area with widespread rainfall totals of up to three inches per day — day after day. Yesterday’s news reported six inches in 30 minutes in Toowoomba, a city that typically receives 37 inches of rainfall annually. It’s this heavy rainfall that lead to the flooding which earned the nickname, “the inland tsunami.”

From ImpactWeather StormWatch:
An upper-level low pressure area located just off the coast of Queensland will continue to bring periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms to portions of southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales through early Tuesday. Though most of the heaviest activity should be south of the Capricornia and Wide Bay & Burnett regions, which have already suffered from widespread flooding lately, continued measurable rainfall cannot be counted out for these regions. In addition, repeated heavy rainfall for Brisbane has resulted in widespread flooding concerns over this area, as well. Daily rainfall totals of 2-3 inches, with isolated higher amounts will be possible which could result in additional flash flooding. There is a chance some storms could become severe, possibly containing gusty winds and hail.

ImpactWeather's StormWatch team continues to identify a persistent low pressure trough responsible for widespread flooding over eastern Australia. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps.

Additionally, this same low pressure trough will stall over southeastern Australia and Tasmania over the next few days, and heavy rain will be possible over portions of New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania through early Friday (local time). Daily rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with isolated higher amounts, will be possible which could result in a local flash flooding threat.

Lastly, it is summertime south of the Equator and the warm waters of the Indian Ocean are capable of supporting tropical cyclones. ImpactWeather’s TropicsWatch team has identified two areas of possible development.

Area one: A low pressure center located near 18.9S/170.2E, or approximately 125 nm east-southeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu, has a very slight chance of tropical development over the next few days as it continues to move southward.

Area two: An area of low pressure located near 15.1S/111.1E, or approximately 440 nm north-northwest of Learmonth, Australia, has a very slight potential for tropical development over the next few days as it tracks southeastward towards the northwestern coast of Australia.

Wet and soggy conditions continue over eastern Australia. Actually, “soggy” is not the appropriate word as many areas are indeed flooded, while Queensland’s coal mines are shut down and more than 200,000 people have been affected. Experts are already estimating flood-related costs above $5 billion, when considering infrastructure rebuilding (transportation has been particularly hard hit) and economic losses.

The flooding is a result of unusually heavy rains that began just before Christmas, and it’s not over yet. The ImpactWeather StormWatch team reports that a trough of low pressure will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms to portions of southeast Queensland through tomorrow (local time). Rainfall amounts will be light however; generally less than 2 inches, but any additional rain will worsen flooding concerns for recent flood-stricken areas such as Rockhampton, Chinchilla and communities along the Fitzroy River that have been particularly hard hit.

Rain continues to flood sections of the eastern Australian state of Queensland. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps.

Residents currently in the flood zones will have to wait a few more days before water recedes and cleanup begins, while residents further south and downstream will have to wait for the rivers to reach their peak next week. One thing they won’t have to wait for are the displaced snakes and crocodiles. Authorities have already begun warning people within the flooded areas to be aware and cautious. Here in Texas, you wouldn’t have to tell me that as I’d be looking for them any time, anywhere.

In New Zealand, a fast-moving low-pressure system will approach western South Island late Wednesday into Thursday, and could produce periods of heavy rainfall across the region. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches may be possible and there could be isolated higher amounts across elevated terrain, which could lead to flash flooding.

More than three inches of rain fell in and around Adelaide, Australia late Tuesday as thunderstorms pounded the South Australia city famous for its long beaches and overall high rankings in “most livable” cities comparisons. The storms and flooding disrupted power to as many as 10,000 properties.

As the Southern Hemisphere summer draws to a close, cold fronts and rain will become more frequent in this region of Australia. Summertime Adelaide is typically dry and can be considered a semi-arid climate, leaving most of the rainfall to the winter months. Yesterday’s rain, in just minutes, more than doubled the typical April rainfall. Typically the wettest month is June as rainfall totals average about three inches for the month, which puts Tuesday’s stormy rainfall into perspective. Just two weeks ago the Western Australia city of Perth was in the news due to its worst storm since 1994.

Tuesday evening (local time) onlookers survey flooded grounds in Adelaide. Photo: BigPondNews.com

Tuesday’s thunderstorms have moved east along a trough of low pressure. Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney should expect showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. Image: ImpactWeather global surface forecast from StormWatch, plus satellite overlay from Gmaps 2.0.

I’m a gearhead. Motorcycles mostly, but cars, too. So the headline “Fastest Golf Slowed by Aussie Heat” from the Brisbane Times grabbed the gearhead lobe of my brain as well as the (just a bit smaller) meteorological lobe of my brain. Turns out Europe’s largest automaker has decided to not send the new high-performance Golf “R” to Australia because of heat concerns. Instead, a detuned version will be shipped Down Under. The less powerful Aussie-bound AWD V-6 Volkswagen Golf will put 252hp to the pavement as compared to the Europe version with 266hp. In America the 4-cylinder turbo “GTI”  packs just 200hp. You’ll recall I blogged about the heat in Australia a couple of weeks ago, and here’s yet another example of how the infamous Australian heat is causing more problems – this time for the country’s performance drivers and gearheads plus Volkswagen Australia who would doubtlessly love to sell the fastest Volkswagen on the market to eager drivers.

Heat concerns? As far as the engine is concerned the cooler the ambient air temperature, the higher the oxygen content per cubic centimeter (cc); more oxygen stuffed into an engine’s cylinders equates to more horsepower. On the other hand, more heat equates to less oxygen per given cc, less performance and more difficulty managing ideal operating temperatures. Today’s small high-performance engines are miracles of modern engineering, but they rely on sophisticated and sensitive systems to keep operating temperatures within just a few degrees of optimum. Volkswagen engineers determined that the Australian heat would overwhelm the new Golf and performance would suffer, perhaps even leading to damaged engines (and unhappy customers).

The car’s hot; the weather’s hotter. Photo: Volkswagen Golf “R”. Brisbane Times and Volkswagen

How hot is too hot? In the case of the Golf, that’s a decision for the Golf’s German designers as they consider the meteorological data. Australia’s annual mean temperatures (mathematical average of daily highs and lows) range from the mid-teens in degrees Celsius (59-62F) in southeastern Australia to the mid-to-upper 20s (81-83F) in areas of northern Australia. Again, these are daily averages spread across the entire year. Conversely, Germany – home of Volkswagen – is more temperate with summer temperatures only briefly reaching into the mid-20s (85-87F). Melbourne, in the peak of the summer south of the Equator today is expected to reach 90F; 95F in Adelaide; 91F in Darwin, while for the past month heat extremes have been plaguing much of Australia.

Why only the “lower” horsepower hi-perf VW “GTI” here in the States? Yes, there are areas of the United States with extreme temperatures, but even southern cities like Phoenix (annual avg. mean 74.2F) and Houston (annual avg. mean 68.8F) can’t match the ongoing heat of Australia, especially the northern 1/3 of Australia. The real reason I believe, is not the weather. With the exception of the small-ish “tuner car” crowd (remember “The Fast and the Furious”?), American drivers just haven’t embraced the high-performance small car market like Europe and other parts of the world, preferring bigger cars and bigger engines.

It doesn’t take a meteorologist to know Volkswagen’s decision will now leave Australian drivers out in the cold (ba DUM dum!)