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	<title>YourWeatherBlog</title>
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	<link>http://yourweatherblog.com</link>
	<description>ImpactWeather staff members discuss weather issues – both meteorological and otherwise.</description>
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		<title>Where&#8217;s Winter? England, Italy and Denver, That&#8217;s Where</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/02/wheres-winter/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/02/wheres-winter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Feb 2012 17:32:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Gorham</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Curiosities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winter Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algeria]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Algeria snow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Atlas Mountains]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dave Gorham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GFS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Morocco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Punxsutwaney Phil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sahara Desert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ski Liverpool]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[StormWatch Today]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter 2011-2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter weather]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=9005</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nearly everybody on this side of the Atlantic is wondering where winter is. It's February and areas that were under significant snow pack this time last year are experiencing snow-free roadways and minimal accumulations. Back in early January I blogged about the New England Pond Hockey Classic to be held this week on my beloved Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire if, I said, there was enough ice. Wishful thinking wasn't enough as it turned out, and the Classic was moved to another lake. On top of all that, the furry forecaster in north central Pennsylvania saw his shadow yesterday, thereby declaring six more weeks of winter. Over the past 24 hours people from coast to coast are wondering, "Six more weeks of this? This isn't winter!" Sure enough, winter in many areas of the U.S. seems to be on sabbatical — for now.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=c2c6f3410d781246dc6a36de554298ab&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p>Nearly everybody on this side of the Atlantic is wondering where winter is. It&#8217;s February and areas that were under significant snow pack <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57370128/u.s-has-third-least-snowy-january-on-record/?tag=strip">this time last year</a> are experiencing snow-free roadways and minimal accumulations. Back in early January <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/ice-ice-maybe/">I posted about</a> the New England Pond Hockey Classic to be held this week on my beloved Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire <em>if</em>, I said, there was going to be enough ice. Wishful thinking wasn&#8217;t enough as it turned out, and the Classic was moved to <a href="http://www.unionleader.com/article/20120203/NEWS15/702039966&amp;source=RSS">another lake</a>. On top of all that, the <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/02/rodent-prognosticator/">furry forecaster</a> in north-central Pennsylvania saw his shadow yesterday, thereby declaring six more weeks of winter. Over the past 24 hours people from coast to coast are wondering, &#8220;Six more weeks of <em>this</em>? This isn&#8217;t <em>winter</em>!&#8221; Sure enough, winter in many areas of the U.S. seems to be on sabbatical — for now.</p>
<div id="attachment_9007" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-Algeria-snow-01.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-9007" title="120203-Algeria-snow-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-Algeria-snow-01-300x183.png" alt="" width="300" height="183" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Algerian snow. Video screen grab: BBC</p></div>
<p>One place where winter is <em>not</em> on sabbatical is Europe. Nottingham, London and Rome all have snow in the forecast over the next couple of days and the snow is even spreading across the Mediterranean to Algeria. Algerian snow is not unheard of, but snow in northern Africa is — not surprisingly — a rare event (thanks to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_mountains">Atlas Mountains</a>, there are actually <a href="http://www.morocco.com/blog/snow-skiing-in-morocco">ski resorts</a> in Morocco). Having said that, it snowed over the Sahara Desert just <a href="http://www.9news.com/rss/story.aspx?storyid=243326">two weeks ago</a>.</p>
<div id="attachment_9008" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-AtlasMtns-01.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-9008" title="120203-AtlasMtns-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-AtlasMtns-01-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Toubkal Mountain in Toubkal National Park in the High Atlas Mountains of north-central Morocco. Photo: Wikipedia</p></div>
<p>GFS computer model predictions place upwards of 20 inches of snow in the high elevations of Italy, Croatia, Bosnia and yes — Algeria this weekend. Wales and the western United Kingdom are bordering on 4-6 inches. England, Wales and Scotland (as well as Continental Europe) already have significantly cold air in place, and with a strong North Atlantic low pressure system on the way the snow event is already locked and loaded. <em>&#8220;Ski Liverpool!&#8221; </em>bumper stickers, anyone? (Tongue-in-cheek, but snow is <em>not</em> expected in Liverpool; ice however, is.)</p>
<div id="attachment_9015" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-GFS-snow.gif"><img class="size-medium wp-image-9015" title="120203-GFS-snow" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-GFS-snow-300x202.gif" alt="" width="300" height="202" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Accumulated Snowfall. 36hr GFS Valid 12Z Feb 4, 2012. Image: GFS via WeatherCaster</p></div>
<p>By the way, the mild Atlantic flow will keep Ireland in the rain rather than the snow and as that mild air pushes east across the central U.K. snow should turn to rain tomorrow making for ugly travel conditions as ice becomes an overnight concern. The UK&#8217;s <em>DailyMail</em> has some great pictures of the bitter cold across Europe — you can view them <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2095509/Eastern-European-death-toll-hits-150-big-freeze-continues-continent.html">here</a>.</p>
<div id="attachment_9012" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-IW-Dave-01.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-9012" title="120203-IW-Dave-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120203-IW-Dave-01-300x236.png" alt="" width="300" height="236" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Yours truly explainng the snow situation in the Plains and Colorado on this morning&#39;s episode of StormWatch Today video. Image: ImpactWeather</p></div>
<p>Meanwhile, as we know, the U.S. is experiencing less snow and less cold than usual. But it <em>can&#8217;t</em> stay this way, can it? The short answer is no. And if there is still any lingering doubt, just look to the fact that Punxatawney Phil saw his shadow yesterday and declared six more weeks of winter. If <em>that</em> doesn&#8217;t sell you, then direct your attention to the central Plains where a major low pressure system is pumping copious amounts of relatively mild low- and mid-level moisture into the Plains and Colorado — exactly the ingredients needed for significant snow not only in the higher elevations of Colorado, but also the Foothills and even Nebraska.</p>
<p>But shouldn&#8217;t it be rain in Colorado if the air mass being directed there is mild? True enough, but the air in place across the Plains is already quite cold — Goodland, KS and North Platte, NE are both looking for a high of just 33F with eight inches of snow expected — and the upslope conditions (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orographic_lifting">oragraphic lift</a>) across Colorado will make the air even colder.  Some areas of Colorado are expecting up to two feet of snow today and, combined with the strong winds, will experience blizzard conditions. This is a key snowfall event for Colorado ski resorts as most of the significant snow has missed these areas so far this season.</p>
<p>Lastly, given the global circulation of air currents, a plunge into the freezer for Europe is often followed by similar conditions in North America. Remember, last weekend temperatures in Fairbanks were recorded at -49F and -50F while on the same day -79 was recorded in another Alaska location. That type of air doesn&#8217;t typically sit around and stagnate (it can, but is not expected to this time) and it&#8217;s expected to push eastward into Canada and then the Lower 48 next week. Yes, it will be modified (warmer) than what was recorded in Alaska, but it will likely bring a real taste of winter to many who have, <em>thus far</em>, felt cheated by the lack of cold.</p>
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		<title>Rodent Prognosticator Decrees Six More Weeks of Winter &#8211; We Agree</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/02/rodent-prognosticator/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/02/rodent-prognosticator/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Feb 2012 19:01:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Gorham</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Related Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Curiosities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winter Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Schmude]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ground Hog Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Punxsutwaney Phil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Remley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter 2011-2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter outlook]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8916</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Remember back in late November, December and early January when we saw those fast-moving frontal systems along the U.S./Canadian border? They were strong and cold but they moved so fast that significant snow accumulation was not an issue and the way they were structured prevented the really cold air from sweeping down into (most of) the Lower 48. Now we’re seeing a significantly slower flow pattern during the past few weeks over North America and it looks like this trend will continue into February. ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=c2c6f3410d781246dc6a36de554298ab&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p><em>Special thanks to ImpactWeather&#8217;s StormWatch Manager <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/ywbteam/">Fred Schmude</a> for his contributions to this posting.</em></p>
<p>Even here on the Gulf Coast, I&#8217;m about tired of winter (or lack thereof), but now that ground hog is telling me there&#8217;s to be six more weeks of it?</p>
<div id="attachment_8967" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120202-Phil-01.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8967" title="120202-Phil-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120202-Phil-01-300x168.png" alt="" width="300" height="168" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Punxsutawney Phil (a marmot in the Sciuridae family, is also known as a wood chuck, whistle-pig and land-beaver) saw his shadow today. That means, according to legend, there will be six more weeks of winter yet to come. Photo: AP</p></div>
<p>Remember back in late November, December and early January when we saw  those fast-moving frontal systems along the U.S./Canadian border? They were  strong and cold but they moved so fast that significant snow  accumulation was not an issue and the way they were structured prevented the really cold air from sweeping down into (most of) the Lower 48. Now  we’re seeing a significantly slower flow pattern during the past few  weeks over North America and it looks like this trend will continue into  February.   A faster flow pattern tends to bring milder Pacific air  across the Lower 48 which decreases the risk of significant winter storm  systems, while a slower pattern results in significantly more snow  across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.</p>
<div id="attachment_8968" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120202-Feb-01.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8968" title="120202-Feb-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120202-Feb-01-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">ImpactWeather Temperature Outlook for February. Degrees shown are variations from normal temperatures. Click for larger image. Image: ImpactWeather</p></div>
<p>Our latest long-range signals indicate this trend will likely continue through February into the first half of March as the combination of a slower flow pattern and atmospheric blocking sends colder surges of Canadian air southward increasing the risk for more wintry weather over the Lower 48 — something we really haven&#8217;t seen much of this season.  Even though it’s still too early to predict the severity of any potential wintry weather for the remainder of the season, several ingredients are in place for a more active winter weather pattern for the next six weeks.</p>
<p>In the short term, the Central Plains states from eastern Colorado to Iowa will likely see a strong winter storm system with near blizzard conditions this Friday and Saturday.   By early next week, much of California and the Southwest U.S. will see some much needed rain and mountain snow.   Even the Northeast U.S. runs the risk of seeing a significant winter storm during the second week of February.</p>
<div id="attachment_8971" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120202-Feb-02.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8971" title="120202-Feb-02" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120202-Feb-02-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">ImpactWeather Precipitation Outlook for February. Shown are variations from normal precipitation amounts. Click for larger image. Image: ImpactWeather</p></div>
<p>So Phil may indeed be on to something.  This year at least, his analysis falls perfectly in line with our current projections. But how well has he done in the past? Check his record against NOAA stats <a href="http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/special-reports/groundhog-day.php#phil">here</a> (hint: why he still has a job, we don&#8217;t know!).</p>
<p>By the way, Punxsutawney Phil isn&#8217;t the only celebrity animal weather forecaster. Last year Lauren wrote about some of them <a href="../2011/02/part-i-punxsutawney-phil-you%E2%80%99re-an-amateur/">here</a>, but some are even more brazen in their outright attempts to steal the spotlight. Right here in our own Houston Zoo we have <a href="http://www.thecypresstimes.com/article/News/Local_News/GROUND_HOG_DAY_AT_HOUSTON_ZOO_WILL_BE_BABIRUSA_DAY_ON_FEB_2_AT_10AM/55755">Remley the Asian pig</a> who&#8217;s been rooting up her own forecast because we have no ground hogs on hand. What about you? Do you have a local furry forecaster (scaly, slimy, or feathered counts, too) who&#8217;s become a celebrity in your area?</p>
<p>We&#8217;ve written about Phil and Ground Hog Day before. You can read those previous posts  <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/2010/02/the-story-of-groundhog-day/">here</a> and <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/2010/01/robot-in-the-hole/">here</a>.</p>
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		<title>Hey, ABC News! Last Week’s Deadly Tornadoes Were NOT A “Surprise”</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/02/hey-abc-news/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/02/hey-abc-news/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Feb 2012 17:55:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Gorham</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Curiosities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ABC News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dianne Sawyer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Get a Clue]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Spann]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[no warning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Three Cheers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8891</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Three cheers to WBMA Birmingham, AL Meteorologist James Spann for taking on the big dog of ABC News last week and telling Diane Sawyer to "Get a clue," after she reported that last Monday's tornadoes came as a surprise. You can read Spann's blog and see the ABC News report here. The severe weather outbreak was advertised by meteorologists well in advance — days in advance — of the actual storms, yet Diane Sawyer, anchor of ABC News' ABC World News, declared the tornadoes "...took the South by surprise; no warning."]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=c2c6f3410d781246dc6a36de554298ab&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p>Three cheers to WBMA Birmingham, AL Meteorologist James Spann for taking on the big dog of ABC News last week and telling Diane Sawyer to &#8220;Get a clue,&#8221; after she reported that last Monday&#8217;s tornadoes came as a surprise. You can read Spann&#8217;s blog and see the ABC News report <a href="http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=56552&amp;utm_source=rss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=diane-sawyer-gets-it-wrong">here</a>. The severe weather outbreak was advertised by meteorologists well in advance — <em>days in advance</em> — of the actual storms, yet Diane Sawyer, anchor of ABC News&#8217; <em>ABC World News</em>, declared the tornadoes &#8220;&#8230;took the South by surprise; no warning.&#8221;</p>
<div id="attachment_8917" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 224px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120201-Spann-01.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8917" title="120201-Spann-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120201-Spann-01-214x300.jpg" alt="" width="214" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">James Spann. Photo: Alabamawx.com</p></div>
<p>Spann — a bit of a celebrity across the South for his devotion and dedication to his passion for all things weather, for being in Alabama broadcasting since 1973 and for his <a href="http://280living.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/james-spann-tracking-storms-saving-lives/">suspenders</a> — wasn&#8217;t the only meteorologist to communicate his criticism to ABC News. A quick look at Facebook, Twitter and LinkedIn showed this was not an isolated case of one meteorologist taking offense. Many meteorologists not only showed their support of Mr. Spann, but contacted ABC News, as well.</p>
<p>In fact, ABC admitted at least a partial misstep. Though the statement from ABC was far from effective damage control, back-pedaling, or even an apology, an ABC spokesperson said, “The report that aired Monday was referring to the fact that many  families were surprised because they were asleep when the tornado hit in  the middle of the night.” ABC also promised to clarify the report the next day.</p>
<p>Nobody watching Sawyer&#8217;s report would connect &#8220;no warning&#8221; with the middle of the night and sleeping families. Her words clearly implied the tornadoes came from nowhere and with no advance alert from meteorologists. But at least Spann and our colleagues were able to get through to ABC and shed significant light on the situation.</p>
<div id="attachment_8920" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120201-sawyer-01.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8920" title="120201-sawyer-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120201-sawyer-01-300x170.png" alt="" width="300" height="170" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Dianne Sawyer. Screen grab: ABC News</p></div>
<p>Meteorology often takes a bum rap for being an &#8220;inexact science.&#8221; Every professional meteorologist has heard the countless jokes about a blown forecast or a surprise &#8220;whatever,&#8221; so it&#8217;s easy to blame meteorology and the meteorologist when weather kills people as it did last week in Alabama. However, the science of meteorology has made steadfast improvements over the decades. These significant improvements are due to advancements in computer processing, but it&#8217;s not just computers. With each passing season meteorologists gain a better understanding of the atmosphere and a better understanding of the pros and cons of the computer modeling data we rely so heavily upon. It&#8217;s rare today that a television or radio meteorologist doesn&#8217;t possess a meteorology or atmospheric sciences degree at a minimum (or, as in my case, the U.S. Air Force meteorology school). A meteorologist today is a highly respected member of the community with the ability to influence — even <em>save </em>— the lives of every resident with access to a TV, a radio, a phone, Twitter, Facebook, etc., etc. Who else can do that? The chief of police? The mayor? The governor?</p>
<div id="attachment_8929" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120201-Spann-02.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8929" title="120201-Spann-02" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/120201-Spann-02-300x218.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="218" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Mr. Spann is well known to his viewers for his wall-to-wall coverage of severe weather events, often pulling marathon events lasting 10 hours or more. With sleeves rolled up and sans suit jacket, his suspenders have become his calling card.</p></div>
<p>Ms. Sawyer&#8217;s remark was subtle and it went by in the blink of an eye; many viewers may not have even noticed. And why would they? It was just another cheap shot (disguised as fact) directed at an industry that has already seen more than its fair share. Yet her message was clear: the general public was let down.</p>
<p>I agree: the general public was let down. However they were not let down by the meteorologists, but by ABC News.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Arctic Temps Set Record &#8211; What Next?</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/arctic-temps-set-record/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/arctic-temps-set-record/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jan 2012 19:25:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Gorham</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winter Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alaska]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arctic outbreak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[computer models]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fairbanks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GFS model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mercury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter 2011-2012]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8768</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s not been this cold in Fairbanks, Alaska for six years. Saturday morning&#8217;s low temperature plunged to 50 degrees below zero. The same day was also the first time in three years that the 24-hour max temp did not rise above minus 40. Minus 40, by the way, is the temperature at which the most [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=c2c6f3410d781246dc6a36de554298ab&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p>It&#8217;s not been this cold in Fairbanks, Alaska for six years. Saturday morning&#8217;s low temperature plunged to 50 degrees below zero. The same day was also the first time in three years that the 24-hour max temp did not rise above minus 40. Minus 40, by the way, is the temperature at which the most widely used fluid in thermometers — mercury — freezes (though less accurate, alcohol freezes at -173F (-114C) and is used in many thermometers where extreme cold and/or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dangerous_goods">HazMat</a> concerns take priority). Fairbanks bottomed at -51 yesterday morning.</p>
<div id="attachment_8879" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120130-temp-01.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8879" title="Thermometer reads 42 below in Fairbanks" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120130-temp-01-300x198.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="198" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Photo: Alaska In Pictures.com</p></div>
<p>That kind of cold doesn&#8217;t just show up one Saturday. It&#8217;s been building for the past week thanks to a strong, stable high pressure system and long, long hours of darkness (today Fairbanks will receive just six hours of daylight with the sun so low on the horizon that the solar radiation practically ricochets back into space). It also doesn&#8217;t just disappear, which is why today&#8217;s YourWeatherBlog is concerned with the recent low temperatures in Alaska&#8217;s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairbanks,_Alaska">second largest city</a>.</p>
<p>Cold weather systems typically gain their identity while parking over broad, northern latitude land masses where sunlight is limited and sweeping winds are not common. Add in a snowy or icy ground cover and the ingredients are all in place. Russia&#8217;s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia">Siberia</a> comes to mind; so too, Canada&#8217;s Northwest Territory. And though Alaska isn&#8217;t a prime nurturing ground for such an air mass, Alaska is certainly no stranger to harboring air so cold it can pop a thermometer! So it is with cautionary interest that we look north for temperatures that, some day, may very well decide to move toward more southerly latitudes.</p>
<p><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120130-Arctic-callout-01.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-8872" title="120130-Arctic-callout-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120130-Arctic-callout-01-250x300.jpg" alt="" width="250" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>Such is the case today. Computer models, at their core, display movement of air masses. With air masses comes moisture (or lack thereof) and temperature (cold or warm) that not only drives the local day-to-day forecast but typically displace the resident air mass already in place leading to what can be a dramatic change to the forecast. Tracking the air mass responsible for the six-year low temperature in Fairbanks suggests an Arctic outbreak for the Lower 48 that may not set all-time low temperature records, but may be a standout for this 2011-2012 winter season.</p>
<p>But — with computer models also comes a level of confidence that rests squarely on the shoulders of the meteorologist interpreting the data. Sometimes confidence is high; sometimes low. And, more often than not, when looking 7, 10 and 14 days into the future it&#8217;s rare that high confidence accompanies the outlook. Again, such is the case today.</p>
<div id="attachment_8875" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120130-Arctic-01.png"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8875" title="120130-Arctic-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120130-Arctic-01-300x218.png" alt="" width="300" height="218" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">GFS  operational computer modeling shows the large pool of cold, Arctic air.  On the surface, locally cold air will be pulled by gravity but it is  the upper-level winds that direct the air mass as a whole. Click for  larger image. Image: WSI</p></div>
<p>What&#8217;s the take-away? It could get very cold in some places of the Lower 48 come the second week of February. However, this is quite some time in the future and there should be no surprise that confidence levels still remain low. Not only is there disagreement between several models (how cold, when and where), but any forecast in the 168-240+-hour time-frame should always be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism.</p>
<p>For now, the temperatures in Fairbanks are warming. Though tomorrow night may again be in the -45F range, most nights following that will be in the -15 to -20F range. Does that mean the air responsible for those temperatures is warming in place? Or does it mean the air mass is on the move and looking for someplace new to hang its hat?</p>
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		<title>Winter Along The Gulf Coast?  She Is Over</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/winter-along-the-gulf-coast-she-is-over/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/winter-along-the-gulf-coast-she-is-over/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2012 16:40:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Fred Rogers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Your Community]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Impact on Daily Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winter Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deep freeze]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Berger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Schmude]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gulf Coast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mosquito]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weak winter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter finished]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter over]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter season]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8864</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today I’m borrowing from The Houston Chronicle&#8217;s esteemed Science Editor Eric Berger who, earlier this morning, borrowed from ImpactWeather StormWatch Manager Fred Schmude to share the very high probability that the winter of 2011-2012 along the Gulf Coast is pretty much over.  At least as far as the region getting any more substantial freezes and/or [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=1dfacf6e6feccdef813513f903ccce7b&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p>Today I’m borrowing from <a href="http://www.chron.com/"><em>The Houston Chronicle&#8217;s</em></a> esteemed Science Editor Eric Berger who, earlier this morning, borrowed from ImpactWeather StormWatch Manager Fred Schmude to share the very high probability that the winter of 2011-2012 along the Gulf Coast is pretty much over.  At least as far as the region getting any more substantial freezes and/or frozen precip.  Click through for details:</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://gurl.im/c79d2vT"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-8865" title="sciguy" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/sciguy-300x96.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="96" /></a><br />
To many this comes as good news but to just as many – those who love winter – it’s a bummer.   I like the cold but I don’t like <em>being </em>cold so I’m either way on the issue, although I wouldn’t have minded a few nights in the low 20s to reduce this summer’s <a href="http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2010/01/a-hard-freeze-and-mosquitoes-a-silver-lining/">mosquito population</a> if only by a bit.  Along with tens of millions of others, I just hope the summer of 2012 doesn’t bring a return of the drought we had last year.  We’ll have more on what we think about the possibility is of that happening in a week or two.</p>
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		<title>Just How Rainy A Downpour?  Time-Lapse Video Shows</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/just-how-rainy-a-downpour-time-lapse-video-shows/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/just-how-rainy-a-downpour-time-lapse-video-shows/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jan 2012 20:02:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Fred Rogers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business Continuity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Disaster Preparedness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Related Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Your Community]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Your Social Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Curiosities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Impact on Daily Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bayou cam]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Braes Bayou]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Hebert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cold front]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flood cam]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Flooding]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[flooding cam]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Galveston Bay]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Ship Channel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ImpactWeather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronald McDonald House]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Medical Center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter storm]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8830</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As this week&#8217;s U.S. severe weather event made its way through Houston yesterday, ImpactWeather TropicsWatch Manager Chris Hebert took a few moments every ¼-hour or so to check one of the local bayou cams – the “Harris Gully Box Culvert” cam – and to trap the occasional image.   Here’s a 20-second compilation that spans a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=1dfacf6e6feccdef813513f903ccce7b&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p>As this week&#8217;s U.S. severe weather event made its way <a href="../2012/01/a-modest-proposal-crash-helmets-for-in-home-use-during-a-tornado-%E2%80%93-why-not/">through Houston yesterday</a>, ImpactWeather TropicsWatch Manager <a href="http://www.youtube.com/impactweather#p/u/8/zuOhO6pDXUw">Chris Hebert</a> took a few moments every ¼-hour or so to check one of the local bayou cams – the “Harris Gully Box Culvert” cam – and to trap the occasional image.   Here’s a 20-second compilation that spans a little over three hours:</p>
<p><object style="height: 390px; width: 640px;"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/K8m_IoIb5aI?version=3&amp;feature=player_profilepage" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always" /><embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/K8m_IoIb5aI?version=3&amp;feature=player_profilepage" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always"></embed></object></p>
<p>The culvert is exactly where the water is designed to go so it’s definitely a focused concentration but impressive nonetheless.  Especially after the drought we’ve suffered over the last year, or continue to endure depending on who you ask.  For those of you interested in the mechanics, the diagonal line in the immediate foreground of the video is a Braes Bayou bike path that Chris and I both ride often.  The cam  is mounted at the <a href="http://www.rmhhouston.org/?id=1">Ronald McDonald House Houston</a> (an excellent cause – donate if you can) and it’s aimed due NW across Braes Bayou and right up the gully, past which is Ben Taub Hospital and the rest of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Medical_Center">Texas Medical Center</a>, the organization responsible for installing the camera.  Just to the north is the Hermann Park Golf Course and the Houston Zoo and museum district.  The bayou itself feeds into the Houston Ship Channel, Galveston Bay and eventually the Gulf of Mexico.</p>
<div id="attachment_8848" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 570px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/gullycam1.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-8848 " title="gullycam" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/gullycam1.jpg" alt="" width="560" height="266" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Photo: Google</p></div>
<p>This is my favorite kind of Google satellite image:  notice the tall, shadow-throwing building on the left side compared with the even taller one on the right.  You can see the west side of the one on the left/west and the east side of the building on the right/east because the image is two satellite passes stitched together.  Sometimes excellent technology can give you a bit of a headache.</p>
<p>The storm continues to the east today leaving lots of rain, <a href="http://www.statesman.com/news/local/storm-produces-tornado-in-northeast-austin-damage-from-2126332.html">pockets</a> of <a href="http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Storms-produce-at-least-one-Houston-area-tornado-2711044.php">destruction</a> and cooler temps in its wake:</p>
<div id="attachment_8845" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 710px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/front-26Jan121.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-8845" title="front-26Jan12" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/front-26Jan121.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="493" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The front continues eastward today.  Graphic: ImpactWeather, Inc.</p></div>
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		<title>A Modest Proposal:  Crash Helmets for In-Home Use During a Tornado – Why Not?</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/a-modest-proposal-crash-helmets-for-in-home-use-during-a-tornado-%e2%80%93-why-not/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/a-modest-proposal-crash-helmets-for-in-home-use-during-a-tornado-%e2%80%93-why-not/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2012 20:00:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Fred Rogers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business Continuity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Disaster Preparedness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Employee Preparedness & Resiliency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Curiosities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Impact on Daily Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[crash helmet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[emergency alert]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ImpactReady]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NOAA Weather Radio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tornado crash helmet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tornado helmet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Universaity of Alabama at Birmingham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weather alerts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weather disaster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weather radio]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Every once in a while an idea comes along and we all wonder why no one thought of it before. Over the last couple of hours the immediate region has been under all manner of watches and warnings for heavy rainfall, lightning, hail, potential straight-line wind damage and tornadoes.  Feeder roads and underpasses have filled [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=1dfacf6e6feccdef813513f903ccce7b&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p>Every once in a while an idea comes along and we all wonder why no one thought of it before.</p>
<p>Over the last couple of hours the immediate region has been under all manner of watches and warnings for heavy rainfall, lightning, hail, potential straight-line wind damage and tornadoes.  Feeder roads and underpasses have filled up with water just from the sheer volume in such a short time and news reports are coming in of wind and possible tornado damage from all over this part of the state.</p>
<div id="attachment_8813" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/radar1.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8813 " title="radar" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/radar1-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Radar and a tornado warning a few hours ago. Click to enlarge. Image: ImpactWeather, Inc.</p></div>
<p>Southeast Texas doesn’t get many tornadoes compared to many other parts of the country but it’s still a concern.  Now the <a href="http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/01/helmets_provide_inexpensive_pr.html">University of Alabama at Birmingham is proposing</a> that citizens who live in areas of the country that are either prone to experience tornadoes, or even where they’re merely just possible, should consider keeping safety helmets at home for use during a tornado.  &#8220;It&#8217;s such a common sense idea that we wonder why it hasn&#8217;t caught on,&#8221; said Scott Crawford, an epidemiologist and one of authors of &#8220;Safety Helmets: A Practical Inexpensive Solution for Reducing the Risk of Head Injuries Resulting from Tornadoes.&#8221;</p>
<p>It may not have been common sense before but it makes absolute sense now that the idea is getting around.  We’ve all read the countless “when we were kids” internet memes about how we survived the latter half of the last century despite the fact that we drank water from garden hoses, played on monkey bars and didn’t wear bicycle helmets.  And some of the newer safety trends that today’s parents engage in do seem a little ridiculous sometimes.  But with the majority of tornado-related injuries and fatalities resulting from head and neck injuries, why not spend 50 or 60 dollars on a helmet for each of your family members?</p>
<p>I’ve seen several tornadoes but I’ve never been in one.  I have, however, suffered a few concussions from v<a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/brain.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-8814 alignright" title="brain" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/brain.jpg" alt="" width="175" height="166" /></a>arious accidents and one thing I’ve learned is that your brain is the most expensive thing you own and it’s very difficult and very expensive to fix if it gets broken.  Just riding your bike down the block without a helmet is dumb.  If I ever am in a tornado, I sure want a helmet nearby to put on.  Why not spend a little extra <em>just the one </em><em>time</em> to have a helmet handy?</p>
<div id="attachment_8818" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 169px"><a href="http://www.radioshack.com/product/index.jsp?productId=11967610"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8818 " title="SAME-radio" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/SAME-radio-227x300.jpg" alt="" width="159" height="210" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Midland® WR-100B All-Hazard SAME Weather Alert Radio, just thirty bucks.  Photo: RadioShack</p></div>
<p>In related news, authorities are also stepping up the campaign to motivate people to <a href="http://www.andalusiastarnews.com/2012/01/23/ema-weather-radios-can-save-lives/">get a NOAA weather radio</a>.  (In case you missed my point, if you don’t own one, go and get a NOAA weather radio.  Not all tornado-‘possible’ towns have warning sirens and even if yours does, in your sound-proofed bedroom you could easily sleep through it.)  Get one that has a battery backup in case the power goes out.  NOAA also provides a Specific Area Encoder Alarm (SAME) option so that you can receive alerts specific to your county and not have to listen to – or be awakened by – alerts that don’t pertain to you.  SAME-equipped receivers run about $50-100 but I just found one <a href="http://www.radioshack.com/product/index.jsp?productId=11967610">on sale for $29.99</a>.  Learn more about <a href="http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/nwrsame.htm">SAME coding</a> and find out what the codes are for your state, county or territory.</p>
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		<title>Coming Solar Flare Storm: This Wednesday&#8217;s Will Be Worst Since 2005</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/coming-cme-storm/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/coming-cme-storm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jan 2012 18:38:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Gorham</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Disaster Preparedness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Related Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Space Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Allman Brothers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aurora]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CME]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[coronal mass ejection]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electromagnetic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eric Clapton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HF radio propagation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NASA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[solar flare]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Tori Amos]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8715</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Two songs are going &#8217;round and &#8217;round in my head on this Monday morning. First, &#8220;Stormy Monday&#8221; (written by T-Bone Walker, performed by The Allman Brothers, Eric Clapton and many more). The other one floating around is &#8220;Monday, Monday&#8221; by the Mamas and the Papas. Specifically, these are the lyrics I can&#8217;t shake: &#8220;They call [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=c2c6f3410d781246dc6a36de554298ab&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p>Two songs are going &#8217;round and &#8217;round in my head on this Monday morning. First, &#8220;Stormy Monday&#8221; (written by T-Bone Walker, performed by The Allman Brothers, Eric Clapton and many more). The other one floating around is &#8220;Monday, Monday&#8221; by the Mamas and the Papas.</p>
<p>Specifically, these are the lyrics I can&#8217;t shake: &#8220;They call it Stormy Monday, but Tuesday&#8217;s just as bad. Wednesday&#8217;s even worse; Thursday&#8217;s awful sad.&#8221; (This <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukkANQGiqog">video</a> from 2009 features the Allman Brothers and Eric Clapton &#8211; go ahead and watch; I&#8217;ll see you back here in 11min 08sec.) And the other lyric is &#8220;Monday, Monday, can&#8217;t trust that day. Monday, Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way. Whenever Monday comes you can find me cryin&#8217; all of the time.&#8221;</p>
<div id="attachment_8782" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News011912-M3.2flare-cme.html"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8782  " title="120123-CMEvid-NASA" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120123-CMEvid-NASA-300x193.png" alt="" width="300" height="193" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Long Duration M3.2 Class Solar Flare and CME. Click image to be directed to NASA.gov for more information including the video of this solar flare recorded the past Thursday. Image: NASA </p></div>
<p>Of course it <em>is</em> Monday. And we <em>do</em> have storms brewing. Significant storms, actually. This coming Wednesday a Texas low pressure center will tap into the Gulf of Mexico humidity bank and make a significant withdrawal — three to five inches of rainfall may be, remarkably, quite common across eastern and southeastern Texas. That, and the threat of tornadoes, too. ImpactWeather&#8217;s StormWatch supervisor Mike Venske posted details on this growing concern earlier this morning and you can read it <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/u-s-weather-bumpy-travel-week-potential-for-business-disruptions/">here</a>.</p>
<p>But there&#8217;s another storm brewing — already underway, actually, and it&#8217;s the strongest of its type since 2005. However, you probably won&#8217;t hear it when your favorite TV meteorologist steps in front of the weather graphics. This one comes from a solar storm near the surface of the sun and the associated coronal mass ejection (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection">CME</a>) and is expected to reach Earth at 8 AM CST Wednesday — about the same time the upper Texas Coast is being pounded by heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms.</p>
<div id="attachment_8787" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120123-solar-Aug01-NASA-01.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-8787" title="120123-solar-Aug01-NASA-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120123-solar-Aug01-NASA-01-300x168.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="168" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">A solar flare recorded on August 1, 2011 obscures almost the entire Earth-facing hemisphere of the sun. Click for larger image. Image: NASA</p></div>
<p>CME&#8217;s are waves of electromagnetic radiation ejected from the surface of the sun into space. When these waves are directed toward Earth they can disrupt radio transmissions and cause damage to satellites, electrical transmission lines and other electrical equipment resulting in potentially massive and long-lasting power outages.</p>
<p>The sun goes through regular solar cycles approximately every 11 years and CMEs are nothing new. However, not until the use of electricity became more common did man begin to relate flares on the sun to disruptions in the power grid. In 1859 the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859">largest geomagnetic perturbation</a> was observed and it was thought to be associated with a CME. In 1971 the first CME was detected, and more recently on August 1, 2010, four large CMEs were detected which triggered large-scale <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_%28astronomy%29">aurorae</a> three days later. The 11-year solar cycle is expected to <a href="http://www.space.com/12586-solar-storms-intensity-2013-peak-nasa.html">peak next year</a> and some are calling it the <a href="http://cenisnewspaper.blogspot.com/2011/06/2013-cme-worst-case-scenario.html">worst case scenario</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.space.com/12584-worst-solar-storms-sun-flares-history.html">Worst solar storms in history</a>.</p>
<p>What can you do? Not much. First, if you live on the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana, allow some extra time for your Wednesday morning commute, and don&#8217;t forget your umbrella — the weather looks nasty. As for the CME, be aware and be ready. You should expect possible power disruptions as this sort of occurrence may damage transformers. Your cell phone may experience technical difficulties. If you rely on satellite data, be prepared for disruptions there, too. Navigation systems may be effected, especially HF radio propagation which can fade at higher latitudes. The aurora may be seen as low as New York, Idaho and the mid-Aleutians, so maybe make plans to step outside after dark (and look up!).</p>
<p>Of course, these disruptions will not be the game-changers some expect the CME in 2013 to be. However, ImpactWeather strongly believes in being prepared — not just for severe weather, but for anything that might move you out of your day-to-day comfort zone. We&#8217;ve also written before about the importance of an <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/2011/11/%E2%80%9Cthis-smells-funny-here-taste-it%E2%80%9D-time-to-rotate-your-emergency-supply-food/">emergency kit</a> and a <a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/2011/07/disaster-strikes-what%E2%80%99s-in-your-go-bag/">go bag</a> (and what to put in them). With awareness of the potential, with your emergency plan crafted and with your emergency kit/go bag stocked and ready, you&#8217;re already more prepared than nearly everybody else in the country.</p>
<p>Writing this blog has gone a long way to move those song lyrics out of my head, and I feel like songs about Wednesday should now be waiting &#8220;on deck&#8221; for my Wednesday blog. <a href="http://www.allmusic.com/artist/tori-amos-p22040">Tori Amos</a> has a song called &#8220;Wednesday,&#8221; and it opens with &#8220;Nothing here to fear, I&#8217;m just sitting around&#8221; — maybe that&#8217;s a good one for us wishful thinkers.</p>
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		<title>U.S. Weather: Bumpy Travel Week, Potential for Business Disruptions</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/u-s-weather-bumpy-travel-week-potential-for-business-disruptions/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/u-s-weather-bumpy-travel-week-potential-for-business-disruptions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Jan 2012 16:03:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Fred Rogers</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business Continuity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Disaster Preparedness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Employee Preparedness & Resiliency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Weather Information]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Your Community]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather and Your Social Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weather Impact on Daily Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Winter Weather]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[increased precipitation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Venske]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[thunderstorms]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tornado]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tornadoes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[weather forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter storm]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[winter weather]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8769</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[ImpactWeather StormWatch Domestic Supervisor Mike Venske weighs in on what we can expect from Mother Nature. The primary threats this week will be centered over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and Deep South as a slow-moving area of upper-level low pressure interacts with increasing Gulf moisture producing areas of locally heavy rainfall which will likely [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=1dfacf6e6feccdef813513f903ccce7b&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p><em>ImpactWeather StormWatch Domestic Supervisor Mike Venske weighs in on what we can expect from Mother Nature.</em></p>
<p><strong>The primary threats this week </strong>will be centered over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and Deep South as a slow-moving area of upper-level low pressure interacts with increasing Gulf moisture producing <strong>areas of locally heavy rainfall</strong> which will likely be measured in inches over many regions, <strong>and isolated severe storms</strong> which may include hail, frequent lightning, strong, gusty winds and, though unlikely, even isolated tornadoes are possible. This activity will begin<strong> in Texas late Tuesday and slowly progress eastward</strong> before pushing off the coastal Carolinas by Friday.  Moisture is not expected to surge far enough northward for any type of significant winter weather threat over the Eastern U.S., however light rain showers will be possible as far north as the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic with the potential for a light wintry mix over coastal New England by the second half of the week.</p>
<p>The PacNW will see another series of Pacific disturbances bringing coastal/lowland rain and mountain snow from Tuesday through Thursday, <strong>but nothing close to what was seen in that region last week</strong>.  Otherwise, snowfall will be contained to the Sierras and Northern/Central Rockies.</p>
<p>After some <strong>light accumulations of snow and freezing drizzle</strong> exit the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast today, <strong>quieter conditions will be seen in these regions as</strong> well as the Northern/Central Plains.</p>
<p><em>Here&#8217;s a look at w</em><em>ho will be most affected:</em><em> </em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><em> </em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em></p>
<div id="attachment_8770" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 649px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/rainfall-totals.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-8770  " title="rainfall-totals" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/rainfall-totals.jpg" alt="" width="639" height="479" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Predicted rainfall totals for the week.  Click to enlarge.  Graphic: NOAA</p></div>
<p></em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<p><em> </em></p>
<div id="attachment_8772" class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 650px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/above-normal.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-8772  " title="above-normal" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/above-normal.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="493" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Above-normal precipitation forecast.  Click to enlarge.  Graphic: GFS</p></div>
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		<title>This is Your Chance: Orion, Leo, the Milky Way Need Your Help</title>
		<link>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/this-is-your-chance/</link>
		<comments>http://yourweatherblog.com/2012/01/this-is-your-chance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jan 2012 17:38:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Gorham</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Related Science]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[constellations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dark sky]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLOBE at Night]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[iPad]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[light pollution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[McDonald Observatory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Milky Way]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[most powerful telescope]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[telescope]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=8646</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the age-old battle of iPad vs. the nighttime sky, the nighttime sky is losing. OK, so maybe it&#8217;s not an age-old battle. The seemingly ubiquitous iPad after all, has only been around for barely two years (it debuted in April of 2010). However, astronomers are worried that the current generation (and we assume future [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<img style='float: left; margin-right: 10px; border: none;' src='http://www.gravatar.com/avatar.php?gravatar_id=c2c6f3410d781246dc6a36de554298ab&amp;default=http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/310963/impactweather-favicon-120x120.jpg' alt='No Gravatar' width=60 height=60/><p><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-callout-04.jpg"><img class="alignright size-medium wp-image-8708" title="120117-callout-04" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-callout-04-300x254.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="254" /></a>In the age-old battle of iPad vs. the nighttime sky, the nighttime sky is losing. OK, so maybe it&#8217;s not an age-old battle. The seemingly ubiquitous iPad after all, has only been around for barely two years (it debuted in April of 2010). However, astronomers are worried that the current generation (and we assume future generations, too) of young people will grow up unable to identify basic constellations in the nighttime sky.  To blame? iPads, texting, XBox 360 and PlayStation, 500 cable channels, the ever-busier family all play a part. Could there be an inversely proportional ratio that tracks childhood obesity and time spent outside stargazing?</p>
<p>We shouldn&#8217;t be surprised. Many teens can&#8217;t identify a newspaper (it&#8217;s true, if you believe <a href="http://www.crystalair.com/story.php?id=200902017">this article</a>), and although <a href="http://articles.cnn.com/2006-05-02/politics/geog.test_1_map-geographic-knowledge-young-people?_s=PM:EDUCATION">this study</a> is now six years old, it showed how two-thirds of young Americans aged 18-24 couldn&#8217;t find Iraq on a map. With that in mind, not being able to find the Milky Way seems to be par for the course.</p>
<div id="attachment_8671" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 410px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-Wiki-lightpollu-01.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-8671" title="120117-Wiki-lightpollu-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-Wiki-lightpollu-01.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="300" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">You&#39;ll never find the world&#39;s best telescopes in New York City. Light pollution would render them ineffective and a tremendous waste of money. Click for larger image. Image: Wikipedia</p></div>
<p>But it&#8217;s not just video games, smart phones and iPads that are obscuring the nighttime sky — there&#8217;s something else to blame, as well: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_pollution">light pollution</a>. Light pollution is a growing problem for not only young Americans but for people around the world. Whether it&#8217;s because more people have left (and are leaving) rural regions for the suburbs and cities, or whether suburbanites find little reason to look up into the sky, more and more people are unable to experience a truly dark sky. Without a dark sky, stargazing becomes difficult for the devoted astronomer but downright unappealing (and perhaps impossible) for the junior hobbyist. This is why you won&#8217;t find the world&#8217;s most advanced telescopes in the cities — telescopes need to be far removed from population centers so as to eliminate as much extraneous light as possible from the view skyward. This is also why GLOBE at Night was founded.</p>
<div id="attachment_8675" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 411px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-astropix-02.png"><img class="size-full wp-image-8675" title="120117-astropix-02" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-astropix-02.png" alt="" width="401" height="257" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Without light pollution, the Milky Way is easy to find in a dark sky. Photo: astropix</p></div>
<p><a href="http://www.globeatnight.org/">Globe at Night</a> wants to bring attention to light pollution and the fact that so many young people around the world are growing up without a basic knowledge or even an interest in the constellations. From their website: &#8220;The GLOBE at Night program is an international citizen-science campaign  to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution by inviting  citizen-scientists to measure their night sky brightness and submit  their observations to a website from a computer or smart phone. Light  pollution threatens not only our &#8216;right to starlight,&#8217; but can affect  energy consumption, wildlife and health. The GLOBE at Night campaign has  run for two weeks each winter/spring for the last six years. People in  115 countries have contributed 66,000 measurements, making GLOBE at  Night one of the most successful light pollution awareness campaigns.&#8221;</p>
<p>(<a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/space/telescopes/4299775">The world&#8217;s five most powerful telescopes</a>.)</p>
<div id="attachment_8672" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 412px"><a href="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-Wiki-McD-Obs-01.jpg"><img class="size-full wp-image-8672" title="120117-Wiki-McD-Obs-01" src="http://yourweatherblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/120117-Wiki-McD-Obs-01.jpg" alt="" width="402" height="158" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">The McDonald Observatory in Ft. Davis, Texas takes advantage of its location far removed from sources of light pollution. Click for larger image.  Image: Wikipedia</p></div>
<p>The 2012 GLOBE at Night campaign begins this Saturday, January 21 and concludes in April. Data collected from international GLOBE at Night participants will be used so that dark-sky advocates can push for changes in lighting ordinances. For every new sporting facility (from Little League to Super Dome), for every new airport expansion or shopping mall, for every new parking complex or suburban neighborhood there is more light pollution and fewer people able to experience a truly dark sky. Additionally, light pollution effects the natural rhythms of wildlife and some believe it can even effect our own biological clock.</p>
<p>GLOBE at Night and organizations such as the <a href="http://www.darksky.org/">International Dark-Sky Association</a> don&#8217;t want to turn all your lights off, or make your favorite sporting facility daytime-only. However, by making the public aware of the growing issues of light pollution as well as supporting efficient, energy- and cost-saving lighting, their hope is to make changes to lighting appealing and desired by populations around the world.</p>
<p>What can you do? Visit GLOBE at Night and fill out their <a href="http://www.globeatnight.org/webapp/">webapp</a>. You&#8217;ll need to know your latitude and longitude (to do that, click <a href="http://www.itouchmap.com/latlong.html">here</a>). Then you&#8217;ll need to find the constellation <a href="http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Orion_%28constellation%29">Orion</a>, <a href="http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Leo_%28constellation%29">Leo</a> or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crux_constellation">Crux</a> at least one hour after dark. Match your observations to one of GLOBE at Night&#8217;s magnitude charts and report your findings. You&#8217;re done! You can also check the findings from observers around the globe.</p>
<p>But all is not dark, even if you can&#8217;t bare to part with your beloved iPad. There are many apps like this <a href="http://starwalk.mobi/">one</a> that let you not only find your own latitude and longitude, but help you find constellations while stargazing outside. So fill out GLOBE at Night&#8217;s webapp, grab your iPad, download the stargazing app of your choice,  grab your favorite deck chair and a blanket, head outside and look up. Easy! (Or should I say, it&#8217;s easy if you live in the country. It&#8217;s going to requite a hour or two drive out to the country if you live in or near a city.)</p>
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