Summer Temperature and Precipitation Outlook

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Summer is officially underway as of Monday, but it sure has felt like summer across the southern U.S. for at least a month. Temperatures across the Southern Plains and Southeast today look to climb into the 90’s with heat index values near or slightly above 100F. Hot weather is also expected across New England with heat index values climbing into the mid to upper 90’s and possibly up to near 100F from Washington D.C. up through Philadelphia.

Temperatures will be above average across a good portion of the lower 48 this summer. As you can see below, the long range forecast calls for above normal temperatures (1.0 to 3.0C or 1.8 to 5.4F) in a large area extending from the Pacific Northwest, eastward across the far northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and northern New England. Farther south, slightly above normal temperatures (1.0C or about 2.0F) are also expected in a large area extending from the Central Plains, east and southeast across the eastern Gulf Coast to southern Georgia and Florida. Elsewhere across the Lower 48, near normal temperatures are expected across the central and southern Rockies, and from the mid Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Seaboard from the Carolinas to coastal New England.

Summer 2010 Temperatures Outlook across the lower 48. Image: ImpactWeather

Not only will temperatures be above average this summer across the Plains and Southeast, but precipitation also looks to be above normal. As you can see below, the best chance of above normal rainfall will be across the southeastern U.S. where enhanced tropical activity is expected to occur. Farther west, above normal rainfall is also expected across south Texas. However, precipitation anomalies during this period will be strongly dependent on tropical cyclone tracks. One slow moving tropical system potentially could deposit many times the normal amount of rainfall for the entire summer in only a few days. Farther to the north, below normal precipitation is expected across the Upper Mississippi Valley from northwest Iowa to northern Minnesota and upper Michigan. Elsewhere, near normal precipitation is expected from the Rocky Mountains to the Great Plains and across the Florida Peninsula.

Summer 2010 Precipitation Outlook. Image: ImpactWeather

The bottom line is that most of us will see above average temperatures this summer with a good portion of the south also seeing above normal rainfall. Even though we are still in the first week of summer, if you live in the south you know it’s felt like summer for quite some time, especially when you factor in the humidity which makes it feel hotter than it really is. As we head into the weekend, heat index values look to climb into the upper 90’s to mid 100’s across much of the Southern U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic. Above average temperatures are also expected this weekend across the Midwest as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Heat index values could top out in the 90’s to 100F through this region. Sounds like a good weekend to be indoors in the air conditioning or maybe outside in the pool!

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