[The following is a slightly edited version of the ImpactWeather Storm Development Outlooksm which is generated daily during severe weather outbreaks that affect a substantial part of the country. The SDO is emailed to ImpactWeather clients. This SDO deals with today’s nor’easter and the continuing nor’easter threat next week — which will be the fourth nor’easter in about four weeks. – Dave]
Storm Development OutlookSM
Issued: 09:06 AM CST Friday January 21, 2011
Heavy Snow Blasting Across New England Today
Another Major Eastern U.S . Winter Storm Possible Next Week
View our updated video discussing this current winter storm system.
Discussion: Strengthening low pressure will move from coastal New England to eastern New Brunswick today bringing a continuing chance of heavy snow. Widespread heavy snow will move from southwest to northeast across all of New England this morning, spreading northeast across New Brunswick this afternoon and evening. Snow amounts across this region will likely average from 4-8 inches with isolated amounts up to 12 inches. By far the heaviest snow will fall in a small area extending from southern and eastern Maine through central New Brunswick where as much as 12 to 18 inches of snow will likely fall through tomorrow morning.
In addition to the snow, strong winds from the north and northeast of 25 to 35 mph with gusts above 50 mph or more will create widespread blowing snow and near blizzard conditions at times. Falling snow will end across most of southern New England this morning and across northern New England late this afternoon and evening.
Weekend Outlook: Behind today’s Northeast winter storm, the weather pattern will quiet down for the most part over the Lower 48 this weekend, thanks to a large area of surface high pressure. We will be monitoring several more disturbances diving southward across the Great Plains toward the mid-Mississippi Valley over the weekend bringing occasional periods of light to moderate snow from South Dakota to Missouri and northern Arkansas. Snow amounts will average from 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts up to 3-4 inches in a few spots, especially from eastern Nebraska to central Missouri.
Long Range Threat…Potential Major Nor’easter: There is currently a growing consensus with some of the longer-range weather data supporting the possibility of another major winter storm over a large part of the eastern U.S. by the middle part of next week. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning and quickly track northeast and strengthen along the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday and Thursday.
Even though our confidence on the timing, intensity and precise track of the low pressure area is low at this time, several long-range signals favor the development of a major winter storm which could produce a band of very heavy snow and strong winds across the Appalachian Mountains and much of the Northeast. The eventual track of the low will, of course, be critical in determining more precise snow totals over the major metropolitan areas of the Northeast from Washington D.C to Boston.
Farther south, a light wintry mix will also be possible over the northern Deep South from southern Arkansas to northern Georgia as the low pressure area starts to develop over the northern Gulf early next week.