[The following is a slightly edited version of the ImpactWeather Storm Development Outlooksm which is generated daily during severe weather outbreaks that affect a substantial part of the country. The SDO is emailed to ImpactWeather clients and today’s, obviously, deals with this week’s round of strong winter weather. – Dave]
Storm Development OutlookSM
Another Significant Winter Storm From the Central Plains to the Northeas
View our two-minute updated video discussing the upcoming winter storm system and colder air this week.
Discussion: A large upper-level storm system will combine with a southward moving cold front resulting in a risk of locally heavy snow from the northern High Plains of eastern Wyoming, western South Dakota, and Nebraska south and east into the Midwest and middle Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday. Snow will then sink further south into the Southern Plains of eastern Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and Ozark Mountain regions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri on Wednesday night before the entire low pressure system pushes to the east into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. Snow accumulations through midday Thursday will generally range from 3 to 5 inches in most locations across these regions; however, a swath of 6-inch snow accumulations will be possible from central Nebraska through northeastern Kansas, and northern/central Missouri. This includes the Kansas City and St. Louis metropolitan areas.
On Thursday afternoon, the heaviest snow will begin to shift to the east, with a swath of 2- to 4-inch accumulations possible throughout the Ohio River Valley and into the northern Appalachians and interior Mid-Atlantic. Cities impacted will include Paducah, Louisville, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Dayton/Columbus, and Pittsburgh. As low pressure moves to the east and colder air spills further south into the Plains, we may even see a brief period of light sleet or snow stretching across the Texas Panhandle, Red River Valley of north Texas and southern Oklahoma, central Arkansas, northern Mississippi, Tennessee, and into southeastern Kentucky and western/northern Virginia. Snow and ice accumulations in these regions will be minimal.
Finally on Friday, models continue to indicate that low pressure will push north and east off of the Eastern Seaboard and intensify at the surface. This will likely increase the intensity of the snow by the end of the week for portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, New England, and Maritime Provinces of Canada. Accumulations ranging from 4 to 8 inches will stretch along and north of the Interstate 95 corridor from Philadelphia to New York City, New Haven, Providence, and Boston. Right now, the heaviest accumulations are expected to fall in New Hampshire, Maine, and New Brunswick through early Saturday where snowfall amounts in excess of 6 to 8 inches are possible. In addition to the falling snow, strong north and northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph will develop across the region with occasional gusts to 40 to 50 mph near the coastal waters from Long Island through coastal New England. This will lead to blowing and drifting of snow, poor visibilities, and potentially significant interruptions to business and travel.
Snow will come to an end across the Maritime Provinces of Canada through the day on Saturday with winds gradually decreasing across the Northeast and New England.