Will Santa Need Rudolph? Christmas Weekend Weather Forecast

No Gravatar

[Guest-posting today for ImpactWeather’s StormWatch Manager Fred Schmude . . . Thanks for the outlook, Fred!]

“The weather pattern has been virtually locked for nearly 3 weeks now and I don’t see much of a change when you consider most of the long-range ensemble signals are locked in place, including the position of the latest MJO which is currently fizzling just west of the Date Line thanks in large part to the strong La Niña over the tropical waters of the Pacific Ocean.   The long-range models will probably be close to right (even 12 days out) when you consider the weather pattern is virtually locked.  Basically the type of weather we have been seeing during the past 2 to 3 weeks should hold together through Christmas Day and possibly to New Years Day as well. (I am allowed an out if the Earth tilts off its axis . . . in that case we may see a change in the pattern by Christmas Day.)  As a result, expect mostly dry and at least seasonably cool weather across much of the Deep South on Christmas Day thanks to a stronger than normal area of high pressure over the region and the absence of a southern storm track.

“There is some possibility that the pattern may phase allowing a stronger surge of Canadian air may to move on down to the Gulf Coast near or just before Christmas bringing a risk of freezing early morning temperatures all the way south to the Gulf Coast.   If that does occur, I doubt there will be much in the way of precipitation, but we may see some light snow all the way south to the western Carolinas and northern Georgia.  By far the most likely scenario favors the status quo with seasonably cool and dry weather from Texas to the Carolinas and Florida based on the projected flow pattern.

“Another possibility, and this seems to be lowest on the list, is for milder Pacific air to take over possibly allowing temps to soar well into the 70s with a risk of showers on Christmas Day as the wind flow switches onshore over southeast Texas.  Again, this seems to be the least likely scenario when you consider the pattern is locked in place and the weather pattern has strongly favored the cool and dry scenario for the most part during the past 2 to 3 weeks.”

Christmas Weekend Forecast. Image: ImpactWeather

Santa will always need his #1 reindeer. Credit: NBC/Rankin-Bass

  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • email
  • LinkedIn
  • Reddit
  • Google Bookmarks
Leave a comment


Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.