September Hurricane Outlook Next Week – Free 20-Minute Webinar

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With the naming of tropical storm Leslie yesterday, we’re on track for one of the busiest tropical seasons in history – in fact, we’ve reached 12 named storms this early only once before in 1995 with the formation of Luis which eventually became a highly destructive category 4 hurricane.  As we’ve seen the over the last couple of weeks, the main development region from Africa to the Caribbean remains favorable for development and we don’t expect that to change substantially in the next several weeks.  Next Thursday we’re hosting our monthly seasonal outlook update, a free, 20-minute webinar on September 6that 10:30C/11:30E.  We’ll examine the 2012 hurricane season through September with an overview of current near-term (next several weeks) and long-term (several months out) predictors that help us to identify potential tropical cyclone development.  As always, the webinar will be presented by ImpactWeather Lead Hurricane Meteorologist Chris Hebert.

Register here or hit the big blue pill.

Hurricane Luis east of the Lesser Antilles on 03 September 1995.

An update of seasonal predictors such as El Niño development and sea surface temperatures will lead into an outlook for the total number of named storms we expect to see for the remainder of the season.  The webinar will cover:

• How this year is comparing to average activity
• What similar past years tell us about what to expect for the rest of the season
• Which coastlines continue to be at greatest risk this year
An up-to-the minute operational briefing of current activity

Feel free to forward this invitation to anybody you feel might be interested in attending.  If you aren’t available next Thursday, go ahead and register so that you’ll receive the follow-up email with a link to the recorded version of the webinar.

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Subject: NHC Bulletin KNHC/TCUAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

…TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS…

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN…ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.

SUMMARY OF 0200 PM…1800 UTC…INFORMATION

————————————————–

LOCATION…14.3N 44.3W

ABOUT 1125 MI…1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE
End of Message
Issue Time: 05:30:58 PM GMT

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