Rush Limbaugh. Photo: rushlimbaugh.com.

Not that I’ve been paying much attention, but it was on June 17, 2010 that Rush Limbaugh decided to strap on his meteorologist hat and proffer his prediction for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. On his show, he cited ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster, Chris Hebert and with doom and gloom in his voice he wondered aloud that with the hype of the pending hurricane season, with the BP disaster, with the European Union falling apart, why go on? He suggested we all just end it now by saying, “OK, folks, it’s suicide time.”

Of course by waiting until the second week of the season, he benefited from the expert opinions of leading hurricane forecasters and climatologists, as well as the latest data runs and computer model outputs. He claimed his prediction would be more accurate than anybody else’s.  “You wait and see,” he said.

His prediction:

• Named tropical storms this year: 0-40.
• Storms that become hurricanes: 0-40.
• Hurricanes that become major hurricanes: 0-40.
• Hurricanes that strike the U.S. coastlines: 0-40.
• Hurricanes that wipe out a U.S. city: 0-40.

As the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season closed Tuesday, let’s see how he compared to actuality:

• Named tropical storms: 19
• Storms that became hurricanes: 12
• Hurricanes that became major hurricanes: 5
• Hurricanes that struck U.S. coastlines: 0
• Hurricanes that wiped out a U.S. city: 0

Looks like he scored 100% in all categories. Though meteorologists might suggest a tendency or perhaps favor one region vs. another, no forecaster who knows the difference between a wet bulb and a dry bulb would hazard a guess as to how many storms will strike the U.S. coastlines, nor would any meteorologist dare suggest which or how many cities will be “wiped out.” Still, when you’re hunting with a shotgun as Mr. Limbaugh has done, you’re bound to get lucky on occasion (even frequently).

Personally, I think the profession of meteorology and, specifically tropical meteorology represented itself with not only a high degree of accuracy but with a high degree of advanced advisory and warning, as well. Let’s check how the numbers compared to ImpactWeather’s early May forecast:

• Named tropical storms: 15
• Hurricanes: 9
• Major hurricanes: 4

And then with a little more focus, the June 1 forecast:

• Named tropical storms: 18
• Hurricanes: 11
• Major hurricanes: 5

You can read the entire ImpactWeather 2010 Atlantic Season Forecast, issued June 1, here. In addition, our 9.5-minute video detailing this forecast is available here.

Regarding the pleasant surprise of no landfalling storms on U.S. coastlines, it’s simple — we dodged a bullet. If not for the location of a strong high pressure system over the Central U.S. and a low pressure trough off the East Coast, things could’ve been entirely different. In fact, only a slight shift in either pressure system might have spelled an entirely different story for U.S. coastlines. Dr. Phil Klotzbach of the University of Colorado estimated such an occurrence (the lack of a landfalling hurricane) at just 3%. Climatologically, one in four Atlantic hurricanes strikes the U.S. coastline. Lucky, indeed.

This May, 2010 graphic indicates how the expected pressure patterns would align to bring an increased threat to the U.S. coastlines of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. Image: ImpactWeather TropicsWatch

What’s it all mean? The science of meteorology has advanced dramatically over the past decade. In just the past few decades the error rate of tropical forecasting has been halved. The type of daily tropical forecasting professional meteorologists bring to private business and the public in general is astounding compared to just 30 years ago. And with more meteorological data soon to be in the hands of forecasters across the globe thanks to improved sensors and processing capability, this trend in improved forecasts will continue. ImpactWeather’s lead hurricane forecaster Chris Hebert agrees: “Forecasters fully expect the error rate to again be halved in the coming decade.”

What else does this mean? You could do a lot worse than not listening to your favorite television, radio or tropical meteorologist — like listening to Rush’s predictions, for instance.

The ImpactWeather TropicsWatch team has been busy these past few weeks preparing for the 2011 season and early indicators suggest another busy season, though perhaps not on the scale of the 2010 season. As always, ImpactWeather stresses that preparation for the one possible storm is key to any hurricane plan, no matter if the forecast calls for a busy or a quiet season.

In addition to our June 1 season forecast linked above, you can read more from YourWeatherBlog on the 2010 Atlantic Season by searching our archives or by clicking here, here and/or here.

2010 Atlantic storm tracks. Image: Wikipedia