Who would’ve guessed that on the first day of spring (tomorrow), all-time snowfall records would be in jeopardy in places like Oklahoma City and Tulsa? Oklahoma City needs just over four inches to break their all-time seasonal snowfall record, Tulsa needs eight inches. Springfield, MO is actually right about normal for the year but if they get enough snow from this system, it could put their season in the top 10. Kansas City is no stranger to heavy snow and they are not close to their all-time record, however this season currently ranks at #4. In fact, Kansas City snowfall, at 200% above normal, is more inline with what Minneapolis typically experiences.*
Strong Low pressure moving from east Texas to western Kentucky will interact with a deep pool of cold Canadian air resulting in a good chance of locally heavy snow, centered across the Central Rockies and Plains over the next 48 to 72 hours. Snow is forecast to increase in coverage and intensity across Colorado, Nebraska and northwest Kansas this morning, spreading south and east across northern New Mexico, northwest Texas and Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri, and southern Iowa this afternoon and evening. On Saturday, snow will shift south and east across most of Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri as low pressure rapidly intensifies over east Texas and shifts slowly north into Arkansas. The heaviest snow will likely fall late Saturday into early Sunday over eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri as the low pressure area tracks slowly north.
Note that any slight change in the forecast track of this winter storm could have huge consequences on exactly how much snow falls, especially over Oklahoma, western Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Right now we are gaining confidence that Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, McAlester, OK, Fayetteville, AR, Kansas City, MO and Springfield, MO will see a heavy accumulation of snow. Also, please be advised that snow associated with late-season systems such as this is often wet and heavy in nature, and may mix with rain at times, especially over southern and eastern Oklahoma, and western Arkansas. The higher sun angle and longer days lead to milder temperatures, with most of the accumulations occurring on grassy surfaces and elevated objects. However, the combination of heavy, wet snow and gusty winds at times could lead to travel disruptions as well as downed tree limbs and isolated power outages in a few locations. In those areas where temperatures remain well below freezing, especially from central Oklahoma to western Missouri, gusty north winds of 20 to 35 mph will generate areas of blowing and drifting snow making any type of travel extremely difficult.
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