This headline caught my attention: “Buddy, Can You Spare a Ripe Tomato?” With not enough summer heat, California tomatoes are not ripening quickly enough, causing not only tomatoes but all West Coast summer fruits to be priced at a premium. Fortunately, California doesn’t have a lock on growing tomatoes: backyards, Florida and Long Island are just as suitable for a tasty tomato crop, as are many Sun Belt states.

Tasty Ripe Tomato. Photo: Wikipedia

Growing up in New York, I’ll admit to taking the Long Island tomato for granted. A summer BLT was just that: a summer treat limited to the time of year not necessarily to the region of the world. Who knew the Hampton tomatoes just down the road were (and continue to be) world renowned? Even more so since the 1994 Seinfeld episode “The Hamptons” when George insists on a stop at a vegetable stand to pick up some Hampton tomatoes for his mother. “My mother loves Hampton tomatoes. She’s nuts for Hampton tomatoes.”

But over in California they’re beginning to think about a late September or even an October ripening because the heat just hasn’t visited the growing regions of the largest tomato-growing state in the United States. Why? The Pacific decadal oscillation, aka: The PDO. The PDO is a pattern of warmer- or cooler-than-normal surface waters in the Pacific Ocean. In this case the PDO is negative which signifies cooler than normal ocean temperatures, as opposed to a positive PDO which indicates warmer sea surface temperatures. This leads to cooler than normal air temperatures near the ocean and with an onshore flow the cooler temperatures migrate inland. Hence, the delay in the ripening of one of the most popular summer fruits.

PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Image: Wikipedia.

For September and October it looks like California will move into a more normal temperature and precipitation pattern. Will this be enough for a bountiful harvest? We’ll have to wait and see, but keep an eye on the tomato prices and hope they don’t climb any higher.

Long-range Temperature Outlook. Image: ImpactWeather.

Facts:
Fruit or vegetable? Fruit!
Pronunciation? Depends. Where do you live?
Heaviest? 7lbs 12oz.
State Fruit? New Jersey and Arkansas.
Is there a national tomato month? No! (But Florida designates April as Fresh Florida Tomato Month.)

Tomato Bruschetta Recipe:

6 Roma or Plum tomatoes, chopped.

1/2 cup sun-dried tomatoes, packed in oil, drained, chopped

3 cloves garlic, minced

1/4 olive oil

2 tablespoons balsamic vinegar

1/4 cup fresh basil, stems removed

salt and pepper to taste

The best sandwich ever? The B.L.T! Keep it simple and you can’t screw it up. You’ll find a million different recipes, but most stray from the basic five ingredients: White toast, mayonnaise, bacon, lettuce and, of course, tomatoes. Add Ruffles Potato Chips and the perfect sandwich becomes the perfect meal!

Yum! The BLT - Is there a better sandwich? Image: Wikipedia.

Here’s our afternoon update video on Hurricane Earl.

Well it definitely affects mine! I’ll be honest, when it’s cloudy or rainy outside I feel like I have no energy and all I want to do is watch TV or nap. The complete opposite is true when it’s sunny outside; I just want to go…go…go. When the weather is nice I feel like I have more energy and motivation to get out and about. Could weather really affect your mood? I say yes, but this question has also been studied by scientists and sociologists.

Although an occasional day here and there where you feel like you have no energy is completely normal, there is a condition called Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) that occurs most frequently in the winter months. People who have SAD tend to have normal mental health throughout most of the year but experience depressive symptoms in the winter or, less frequently, in the summer, spring or autumn. This occurs year after year. It’s estimated that 1.5 to 9% of adults in the U.S. experience SAD.

Do you ever feel like you get the winter blues? Some of the symptoms of SAD may consist of morning sickness, difficulty waking up or oversleeping, overeating, craving carbohydrates (often contributing to weight gain), lacking energy, difficulty concentrating and withdrawal from friends, family and social activities. Some people may also experience SAD during the spring and summer, but it’s less common. Some of the symptoms of spring/summer SAD include insomnia, irritability, anxiety, decreased appetite, weight loss and social withdrawal.

What exactly causes SAD? That still remains unknown but it’s likely that genetics, age and your body’s natural chemical makeup play a vital role. This includes your body’s daily biological clock (circadian rhythm). During the fall and winter, sunlight is reduced (days are shorter and the sun is lower in the sky) and this may disrupt your body’s internal clock and may lead to feelings of depression. Also the change in the seasons can disrupt the balance of melatonin levels in your body (which plays a role in your sleep patterns and mood). The reduced sunlight during these months can cause your serotonin levels to drop and can lead to depression.

The Circadian rhythm is a 24-hour cycle in the biochemical, physiological and behavioral process of living entities. Image: Wikipedia

Seasonal mood variations are believed to be related to light (or lack thereof) since people don’t tend to spend as much time outdoors in the winter months and the days are shorter; this makes complete sense to me. One of the treatments for SAD is light therapy in which you’re exposed to a bright light for a period of time. This type of therapy appears to cause a change in the brain chemicals linked to mood. Medications, such as antidepressants, may also be prescribed if symptoms are severe. Psychotherapy is another option to treat SAD–it helps you identify and change the negative thoughts and behaviors that may be making you feel worse.

Light therapy is a common treatment for Seasonal Affective Disorder. Photo: Wikipedia

Studies show that women are more likely to be affected by SAD than men (3 out of 4 sufferers are women). In Alaska there’s a SAD rate of 8.9% and in the Netherlands an estimated 10% of people suffer from it. SAD is noticeably present at latitudes in the Arctic but is extremely rare within 30 degrees latitude of the equator. Fall is just a few weeks away for those of us living in the Northern Hemisphere and some of the symptoms associated with SAD start in the fall and continue through the winter months.

Seasons in the Northern Hemisphere. Image: The Atmosphere

From wearing his geologist’s hat this morning, to now wearing his tropical meteorologist’s hat this afternoon, YourWeatherBlog once again taps the mind of Fred Schmude:

I have had a little time to look at some past data and compare ImpactWeather’s prime analog data with the current season…the trends are quite remarkable so far…take a look:

The Analogs compared to 2010.

The Analogs: 1998

1998 had three storms develop in the western and northern Gulf during the first three weeks of September…also a major hurricane struck during the last week of the month.

This September, based on the analog data alone from 1998, I would be a little more concerned as we move into September over the Gulf of Mexico.  Here is what some of the models are showing…

Current CHI rapidly falling (upper level divergence) over the Eastern Pac and spreading eastward.

Hurricane east of the Caribbean and deeping pressure over the western Gulf near Tampico

Strong ensemble trends indicate high pressure at the surface and aloft will be building over the Southeast U.S. during the second week of September. This system has trouble written all over it! Considering the timing, model trends and ensemble trends incorporating detailed PNA and NAO data, this will have to be one to watch closely.

GFS...12z Wed, Sept 8th.

The new ECMWF turns it out to sea before reaching the Bahamas…it’s possible, but the EURO is not having a good season this year and I am currently favoring a more westerly solution.

Mr. Schmude has posted to YourWeatherBlog before as well as provided content. You can read some of his prior entries here, here and here.

We spoke with ImpactWeather Meteorologist and in-house Geologist Fred Schmude last week about the pending eruption of Mt. Galeras in Colombia. While we wait for Galeras, Mt. Sinabung has jumped into the fray. Once again, Fred Schmude:

There has been a lot of recent news about Mount Sinabung on the Island of Sumatra in the eastern Indian Ocean, which surprisingly erupted after nearly 400 years of dormancy. Several shallow earthquakes occurred near the mountain slope last week followed by a quick blast of ash and rock fragments that reached up to 5,000 feet above the volcano last weekend. Typically shallow earthquakes located underneath a volcano indicate that magma is on the move and depending on the frequency of these quakes volcanologists can determine if an eruption is imminent. In Sinabung’s case there was real no warning other than a few small quakes followed by a quick supersonic rush of ash, rock fragments and gas into the atmosphere.

Mt. Sinabung erupts Monday, August 30, 2010. Image: Sutanta Aditya / AFP - Getty Images

Mount Sinabung is located on the western Pacific Ring of Fire, which is a continuous string of volcanoes stretching around the Pacific Ocean from Asia and Australia on the west side to North and South America on the east side. The reason for all of the volcanic activity is due to geologic plates colliding with one another resulting in long stretches of subduction, with geologic plates sliding under one another resulting in friction, heat and melting of rock.  The melting rock becomes lighter than the surrounding rock, rises and eventually reaches the surface of the earth with time; an erupting volcano is the result. Mount Sinabung stands at 2460 meters (~8,071 feet) and is located on a subducting plate on the island of Sumatra, which is known for many more volcanoes — some of which have erupted very violently in the past.

The reason we are concerned about Sinabung is due to some of the geologic facts about this volcano. First, Sinabung is considered a stratovolcano with steep sides composed of alternating layers of lava flows and pyroclastic flows. Stratovolcanos typically are explosive and can produce very violent eruptions over periods of months and years.  Examples of recent stratovolcanos include Mount Saint Helens in western Washington State, Mount Eyjaffjall over southern Iceland and Mount Etna over Europe, which has had alternating eruptive phases over the past several years. Secondly, there has been little activity on this volcano during the past 400 years, meaning this volcano has had plenty of time to build up pressure, which may eventually lead to a much more violent eruption in the near future. More than likely this is the largest concern for volcanologists right now and one of the main reasons why nearly 30,000 people near the volcano have been evacuated as a precaution for another potentially larger explosion. Thirdly, the magma (molten rock) has large quantities of silica and aluminum, which usually indicate magma that is more viscous and more apt to build up pressure and explode. Finally, Sinabung is in a region of the world known for very violent volcanic eruptions, and its only common sense to assume Sinabung has a similar potential.

For now it’s a wait and see game, not only for the scientists closely monitoring the volcano, but more importantly for the people desperately wanting to return to their homes and farms located on the fertile slopes of the volcano. We may see this concern linger on for weeks and months before we know for sure if the volcano will return to dormancy or enter a much more active phase of activity.  The latter scenario is, of course, our greatest fear.

Scenic Mt. Sinabung under blue sky. Image: Wikipedia

You can read more of our YWB volcano postings here, here and here.

Hard as it is to believe that it’s already September, thankfully most of us have dodged any tremendous impact from tropical activity this season despite the fact that we’ve already had 6 named storms and will very probably have a 7th (Gaston) by tomorrow.  Here’s an 8 1/2-minute video update we produced yesterday afternoon that outlines why we expect the southern Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf region to become a good deal more active this month.

Read more about why we expected last July that activity would start to increase about now.

I love the weather and am fascinated by its extremes. Just recently I was wondering why so many of us are thrilled by the extremes yet at the same time seemingly bored by anything less. As an example, I thought: the TV weatherperson. You’ve likely seen the local TV meteorologist battling the weather, in the elements and likely at great peril to not only himself but the production crew as well. Why?

TV coverage of Hurricane Katrina in Mobile. Photo: WALA-TV

Scientists have proven there are chemicals in the brain that cause some of us to seek out the thrills that others shy away from. A friend of mine loves the pending landfall of an approaching hurricane while most of us prefer to run the other way and at the same time trying to will the hurricane to pick a different course. My friend is not alone — racing drivers, parachuters, circus acrobats – all have a need to feel (much) more of a rush than the rest of us. And then there’s the TV meteorologist.

Hurricane Rita Evacuation, Houston. Photo: Creative Commons

How many times have we seen the TV meteorologist waist deep in flooded roadways, or trying to stand straight in a howling wind, or not quite succeeding in maintaining footing in a blizzard? Before coming to ImpactWeather I used to do TV reports in the middle of snowstorms when I lived in Omaha and Sioux City, Iowa. There is nothing more enjoyable (odd as that sounds) than letting the viewer know what’s going on! And being out in the elements, dangerous though it may be, makes for good television (read: high ratings). Still, it brings me a thrill I just can’t get on a sunny summer day. I feel I’m doing my duty bringing the outside weather inside to my viewers, while at the same time feeding my need for a “rush” and helping my TV station — I hope! — earn higher ratings.

As we head into the heart of hurricane season, it’s a better-than-fair bet we’ll watch — somewhere — some TV meteorologist in the midst of a hurricane as he reports the weather. Will you tune in and root him on? Will you drive to the coast to join him? Or, will you turn the channel? Let us know of your thoughts in the comments section below.

Hurricane Katrina as a Category 5 storm. Image: NOAA

Anderson Cooper during Hurricane Katrina. Photo: CNN

Read more about extreme weather A Secret Climate Change Weapon? Ridiculous! and #1 Weather-Related Killer Is…

Last Monday I was thinking that because of the recent lull in tropical activity perhaps people weren’t taking this tropical storm season seriously.  Most of my experience is anecdotal and personal and therefore statistically invalid but many people I had spoken to outside of our offices seemed to think that this was going to be a quiet season similar to last year and not the very busy one that ImpactWeather and many other prediction centers have called for over the last several months.   By now, with the formation of Danielle, Earl and probably Fiona, I’m not quite as concerned.  At least not about whether people are paying attention.  They are, at least to a greater extent than last month.

What’s different from last season?  In my own circle, I know two married couples, friends from many years ago, who’ve moved back to this coastal region after respective and prolonged stints much farther inland.  We were talking about how hot this summer has been and one of them actually joked, “Oh yeah, I forgot . . . hurricanes.  I guess we can sell the snowshoes.”   Yet two other couples I know both have newborns (welcome, Fiona – seriously – and Michael!), the first kids in both families.  Think those peoples’ priorities have changed a bit in the last few weeks?

Michael was born Thursday and I was talking yesterday to his dad, who’s still flush with elation and anxiety about the birth of his first son.  He told me what a difference it’s made given that “before” they never planned or stocked up on supplies or considered a week or more without electricity because he and his wife would just “throw a backpack in the car and go to Dallas or Austin for a few days.”  But the risks are greater now and the decisions have to be made and plans put in place to make sure the family as a whole is prepared with the best response to a threat.  (In their case, I convinced him – I think – that given exactly where they live, i.e., not in an evacuation zone, they should do what I do:  hunker down, hide from the wind and wait until after the storm passes before deciding whether they need to go find air-conditioning and refrigeration.)

Hurricane Danielle as seen from the ISS on Friday. Photo: NASA

Take a moment to think about what might have changed in your life since last season.  What changed at your company?  Did the change leave any holes in your emergency response plan, both at home or at work?  Both Earl and Fiona – the tropical storm, not the baby girl – pose potential threats to the East Coast.  It might be too late to make major adjustments to your response plans, but take a look anyway.  Better to mull a backup now than the day before there’s an impact on your new situation.

For more information about life at ImpactWeather, read one of our first entries here.  For more about preparing in general: here and here.  And don’t forget our 20-minute free webinar tomorrow at 10:30CDT hosted by yours truly – the August 31^st update to our season forecast.

The search phrase “Hurricane Katrina” returns almost 3.3 million hits on Yahoo, while Google returns 11 million. For comparison, 2005′s Hurricane Wilma garnered 243,000 hits. 1983′s Hurricane Alicia 305,000 hits. Hurricane Andrew, in 1992, devastated the town of Homestead, Florida and nearly wiped Homestead Air Force Base off the map — 500,000 hits.

Not even the foundation from the Homestead Air Force Base home my wife and I lived in prior to Hurricane Andrew has survived. Image: Wikipedia.

What can I add to the Katrina story that hasn’t been said already? Meteorologically, it’s all been covered. Socially, it’s still being covered. And now that the five-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina is this Sunday, 8/29 everything already covered is being covered again. I can add my (short) story. And I can add a little bit about how ImpactWeather used Katrina to improve its service by developing  an industry-leading storm rating system that is changing how hurricanes are considered.

At the time, ImpactWeather provided the on-air weather service for WWNO-FM, New Orleans. In addition to our daily forecasts, we provided hurricane expertise and  commentary for the listeners. As the morning meteorologist and the supervisor of the ImpactWeather Broadcast Team, it was my responsibility to provide frequent and detailed coverage of the storm while setting the tone of the coverage for the rest of the team. Three days from landfall, the forecast shifted from a Florida Panhandle landfall to one on the Mississippi Coast. Two days from landfall, President George Bush declared a state of emergency for most areas of the northern Gulf Coast, including Alabama, Mississippi and most of Louisiana. The day before landfall, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered the first-ever mandatory evacuation of the city while city officials established shelters, or “refuges of last resort,” including the Louisiana Superdome — home to the New Orleans Saints.

From the archives: The author broadcasting for radio.

Though some computer models were suggesting a direct hit for New Orleans and much of the media reported the likelihood of a landfall exactly on top of New Orleans, our ImpactWeather forecast kept the storm east of the city. Our concern was less about the consequences of a direct hit and more about the surge that could overwhelm the levees. This scenario become more evident in the hours before landfall and we continued to report a landfall east of the city and the possibility of the storm surge inundating Lake Pontchartrain and the surrounding waterways. I’ll never forget WWNO’s on-air news anchor saying to me early Monday morning several hours before landfall, “What’s happened to the forecast?!” when I explained how a landfall just east of New Orleans could be worse than a direct hit due to the flooding potential coming into the city from breached levees to the north, as opposed to the surge from the Gulf of Mexico to the south.

What followed has been well chronicled by every media outlet over the past five years. Coverage has been excellent and terrible and everything in between. At ImpactWeather our hurricane experts looked at how Hurricane Katrina was represented as a storm in the days before landfall and during the months after landfall and thought, “There must be a better way.” The better way is the Hurricane Severity Index.

The Hurricane Severity Index (HSI) is not meant to replace the 39- year-old Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) scale, but it was acknowledged by not only ImpactWeather meteorologists that the SSHS doesn’t tell the whole story of a tropical cyclone. Ask any coastal resident, not just Louisiana but any coastal resident from Texas to Maine, about the Saffir-Simpson scale and they’ll tell you it’s the hurricane rating system. Perhaps the specifics break down a bit, but most know it’s a 1-5 scale with 5 being the worst or the most powerful hurricane. Most know, too, their own personal “scale” that says they won’t evacuate for less than a 3, most will leave for a 4 and only the hearty or crazy will stay for a 5.

Not all storms are alike. Image: ImpactWeather, Inc.

Missing from the Saffir-Simpson is a consideration for the size of a storm. Intensity, yes; size, no. Are all storms created equal? Are all Category 3 storms the same and can the same damage be expected from each? No. Even if the wind speeds are the exact same, a storm with a bigger “footprint” of hurricane-force winds will cause more widespread damage than one relatively confined and compact. What about a broad tropical storm that potentially could bring flooding to thousands upon thousands of square miles? The SSHS does not consider a topical storm. The HSI was created to consider both intensity and size and to provide an index to rate not only hurricanes but tropical storms, as well. Since 2006 the HSI has been in use and the catalyst was Hurricane Katrina.

Not only is Sunday the 5-year Anniversary of the Louisiana landfall of Hurricane Katrina, it is also the 5-year anniversary of the most active hurricane season on record. I did a few more Google searches: “Most active hurricane season,” 456,000. “2010 Hurricane Season,” almost 1.9 million. “Hurricane Severity Index,” 15,700.

YourWeatherBlog has mentioned Hurricane Katrina before. You can read some of the posts here, here and here.

ImpactWeather is rich with experience and expertise, and not just what you’d expect. Of course, we issue the forecasts you’re familiar with and some of our meteorologists have even taken that skill to television meteorology; more than a few have come to ImpactWeather from the world of television meteorology. But did you know one of our forecasters in a previous life was a ship captain? Another was a Navy helicopter pilot. One of our forecasters was assigned to Camp David and provided weather briefings to the President and Marine One. We have several current and former military forecasters who have served in this country and on the front lines of Iraq and Afghanistan; one was an Air Force Typhoon Chaser in the North Pacific. We have forecasters who have served on rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Argentina. We have forecasters presently on remote assignment in Alaska providing specialized forecasts for the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Our forecasters have even taught weather classes in Alaska so that shipboard MMOs (marine mammal observers) could enhance their marine wildlife data reports with detailed weather and seas observations. Taking this a step further, 20% of the ImpactWeather staff hold masters degrees while more than 90% hold a bachelors degree; many of our staff hold multiple degrees.

With this in mind, Your Weather Department can reach deep into many areas of science and provide insight and expertise into more than “just” your weather forecast. One of these additional areas of expertise is geology. ImpactWeather’s Fred Schmude, before getting his meteorology degree, obtained his geology degree from the University of Texas. Fred was instrumental in creating specialized graphics for our aviation clients when the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted earlier this year and crippled air traffic across the North Atlantic. Fred was the only one in the industry creating volcanic ash plume graphics beyond 72 hours; his 96- and 120-hour graphics were not only highly unique but also highly sought.

And now there’s another volcano with an imminent eruption: Galeras in Colombia, South America. Mr. Schmude reports:

Meteorologist, Geologist Fred Schmude (L) with the author. The two have worked together for more than 20 years. Photo: ImpactWeather.

“Galeras is what volcanologists call a  compound strato-volcano (multiple vents, steep sided and explosive) with a summit altitude of 14,029 feet located in extreme northwest Colombia. The volcano has a history of frequent explosive activity mainly of the Strombolian (<10km) and Vulcanian (<20km) type ash plumes, with pyroclastic flows (ash, gas, fragments of incandescent lava)  and lava flows.  Because the volcano explodes on frequent occasions, Sub-Plinian or Plinian ash plumes would be unlikely, meaning any ash cloud should remain below 50,000 feet.  Also, Galeras has a history of pyroclastic flows and anyone within 20 miles of the crater is being evacuated.  Apparently this volcano gives very little warning before it explodes…several scientists have lost their lives due to Galeras’ unpredictable eruptive history. ”

Galeras Volcano as seen from the city of Pastos. Photo: Wikipedia

Galeras erupted on January 3 of this year and then again yesterday. Yesterday’s eruption was classified as non-explosive and an ash plume remains visible. Authorities are maintaining a high alert. Galeras is one of 15 Holocene volcanoes in Colombia and Colombia is well within the Pacific Ring of Fire.

You can read some of our previous volcano posts here, here, and here.