Hurricane season begins in just over three weeks, yet last Saturday — just six days ago — Houston and many other areas across the country set record low temperatures. It doesn’t exactly feel like May, let alone hurricane season. It reminds me of the second and third week of December when everybody’s walking around saying, “It doesn’t feel like Christmas.” It sure doesn’t feel like hurricane season, either. Yet we all know it’s coming.

The ImpactWeather tropical season forecast is suggesting a busy year and one more active than typical. What’s key however, is that steering currents are expected to drive more storms to the U.S. coastline, from the Mid-Atlantic southward, as well as into the Gulf of Mexico. Corollaries to previous active seasons with similar characteristics also point to an active season with a higher number of landfalling storms. So it may not feel like hurricane season but hurricane season is on the way. No matter. The real question is, are you ready for hurricane season?

The outlook for the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is notable for two reasons. First, an above-average number of storms are expected. Second, steering currents are expected to deliver more storms to U.S. coastal areas. Click image for full size. Image: ImpactWeather TropicsWatch

With just a few weeks to go, there’s still plenty of time to make preparations. My last few posts to YourWeatherBlog have been about this very subject but if I don’t write about it now, when should I? I can tell you this: According to the American Red Cross, 93% of Americans haven’t taken the most basic steps toward preparedness. Amazing. What’s more, a 2009 survey reveals that 29% of Americans have not prepared because they think emergency responders will help them while 60% plan to rely on those emergency responders during the first 72 hours following a disaster. I have one word for these people: Katrina. Who can forget the lack of immediate response to the city of New Orleans?

It’s taken a long time for people to buckle up in a car without thinking about it. It’s taken a long time for people to get the message that smoking cigarettes kills. It’s taken a long time for people to learn that disposing of motor oil down the storm drain has tragic consequences. With time, we can accomplish great things and create new paradigms. Yet the 2009 survey I mentioned above was completed four long years after Hurricane Katrina and we only have to look back to last October to see how vastly unprepared thousands of people were in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. How is it possible that so many of us remain unprepared?

Let’s understand that immediate response is not what FEMA is about. It will take time for the emergency management organization to gather supplies and personnel to respond to a crisis. They may even have to cut a path through debris to reach your front door — and that’s not going to happen any time soon. In fact, FEMA’s own guidelines tell us that we should be self-sufficient for a minimum of three days. This means you need food, water, power (optional, but very helpful) and a plan that will let you survive without assistance for 72 hours. Yet the survey reveals that not only are we unprepared, we’re relying on immediate assistance from the organization that is telling us we need to rely on ourselves in the hours and days following a disaster. This is a recipe that will lead to disappointment, wasted effort, anger, failure and likely even death.

If you prefer to do your Christmas shopping on Christmas Eve, or only go to the dentist when your teeth hurt, then you’re probably going to wait until the wind starts blowing and evacuation routes begin flooding before you think about preparedness. For the rest of us, the time for preparation is now.

I’ve written about preparedness and emergency supplies before. You can can search YourWeatherBlog using key word tags at the top of the column to the right, or visit a couple of those articles here and here.

To me, All Quiet on the Western Front has come to represent more than just the title of the 1929 novel. It’s come to represent “everything is without drama, there are no fires, no emergencies, no life or death situations — for now. But something’s brewing…and it’s just a matter of time before it reveals itself.” And at this time of year for me, All Quiet on the Western Front is a direct corollary to the Atlantic Basin and the pending hurricane season now just a month away.

The tropical Atlantic is quiet today. Hurricane Season begins June 1. Image: ImpactWeather Gmaps

The Atlantic Basin is now quiet, but the seasons have changed and water temperatures are creeping upward. The Sun was directly over Earth’s equator last month and so already there’s been more than a month of direct sunlight over this broad area of tropical ocean. A quarter of a degree of sea surface warming here, a quarter of a degree there. It adds up. How long before the first swirl of clouds becomes the season’s first depression and then the first tropical storm, and then — a hurricane? And how long before that hurricane threatens your coastline (wherever you may be)?

This is the time for preparation. This is even the time to learn how to prepare. There’s still time. For some of us there will always be time to prepare but there are always those for whom time runs out. There are always those who say tomorrow is the day they’ll begin to prepare. There are always those who believe it will happen to somebody else but never to them. And there are always too few who have taken the necessary steps to be prepared and to be self-sufficient for the FEMA-recommended minimum of three days (FEMA’s “Are You Ready?” guide here).

Basic preparedness can be bitten off in tiny bites. Simply acknowledging the need to prepare is the first step. From there hopefully, it’s not much longer to step two, Develop an Emergency Plan and then step three, Collect and Assemble Your Emergency Kit. The steps are not complex, and though an emergency kit can be expensive, it doesn’t have to be (basic emergency kit); you can add to it as your time and wallet allow. (Click the link to FEMA’s guide above for the full list of steps to basic preparedness).

In a promotion for the American Red Cross, actress Jamie Lee Curtis shows how easy it can be to prepare an emergency kit. Image: American Red Cross

Even if you stopped your preparations at the completion of your emergency kit you would be well ahead of the vast majority of Americans. According to a recent survey, most Americans (60%) plan to rely on emergency responders within the first 72 hours following a disaster. This surprising finding is the exact opposite of what FEMA expects as a minimum level of basic preparedness.

What’s the answer (what’s the question?!)? Are Americans unprepared because they’re uniformed? Are Americans unprepared because they think it will happen to the other guy? Are Americans unprepared because they’re lazy? Are Americans unprepared because it’s not cool to be prepared?  Are Americans unprepared because none of their friends, neighbors or co-workers talk about being prepared? FEMA’s recommended minimum is so stated because it’s quite possible it may take three days for emergency responders to reach you. Who remembers the emergency response to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina?

Hurricane season begins June 1 — 32 days from now. That’s plenty of time to develop an emergency plan, to build your emergency kit, to learn your community’s emergency evacuation routes and to take the basic steps to emergency preparedness while becoming self-sufficient for three days.

As recent events in West, Texas prove, it’s not always a hurricane that our emergency preparations are for. Image houston.culturemap.com

Right now it’s all quiet in the Atlantic Basin, but with the early forecast indicating an above average season it won’t stay quiet there for much longer. In the coming six months, there will be a disaster somewhere. There will be people who have prepared and there will be people who have not. Now is the time to determine how you want the days and weeks following a disaster in your community to unfold.

ImpactWeather has written about emergency preparedness and emergency kits before. You can read a few of those articles here and here.

ImpactWeather’s 24th Annual Hurricane Symposium is just two weeks away. Learn more about this multi-day event at TropicsWatch.com.

You probably didn’t notice the solar flare this weekend, and let’s consider that a good thing…as in, no news is good news. I’ve been checking the news sources this morning and, so far, there’s been little mention of the flare and its associated coronal mass ejection (CME) since Friday (the flare was observed early Thursday). Increased aurorae activity, yes, but no widespread power outages or communications disruptions. Though it was noted to be the largest solar flare of the year, it was a minor one (M6 rating; see table below).

Last Thursday’s solar flare originated from AR (Active Region)-1719. Click for larger image.

Coronal mass ejections — comprised of highly-energized particles and magnetic wind — can disrupt electronics on Earth by impacting everything from radio communications to GPS signals, while creating radiation hazards for spacecraft and the humans within. A large enough CME directed at Earth has the potential to knock out electrical power for extended periods of time. And since CME’s travel outwardly from the sun at 1-1.5 million miles per hour, Earth-arrival can be noted in as little as 24 hours. This most recent CME was rated as moderate. No news is good news, indeed. (Read more about how coronal mass ejections are classified here.)

Experts disagree on exactly how long these cycles last and exactly when they will peak, but Solar Cycle 24 began in 2008 and is expected to peak about now. These sub-11 year cycles are marked by periods of increased solar activity during the cycle. Predictions for the current SC-24 are for a relatively quiet cycle and for it to be the most quiet in 100 years. Again, more good news.

Is your business continuity plan yet another source of good news? It is if it includes outliers like power and communications disruptions that might be brought about by solar flares and coronal mass ejections. As I mentioned in last week’s article for YourWeatherBlog, weather is responsible for 90% of Presidential-declared disasters, but that leaves 10% to things like earthquakes, disease and solar flares. Consider the 1989 solar flare that left six million people in the province of Quebec without power for nine hours.

Are more solar flares and coronal mass ejections in our future. Experts say yes, with certainty. How strong and when is a little more cloudy. Yet with the the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season’s official beginning just 46 days away and a potential bullet dodged just a couple of days ago, now is the perfect time to review your business continuity plan, as well as your emergency plan and emergency kit for home.

How solar flares are classified. Typically, X-class flares are the types that are strong enough to cause notice on Earth. Source: Wikipedia

ImpactWeather’s YourWeatherBlog has written about solar activity before. You can visit a few of those links here, here and here. We’ve also written about emergency plans and emergency kits before — read them here and here.

I didn’t like it when Aerosmith’s lead rocker, Steven Tyler, was on American Idol. I like my rock icons to be other-wordly, to not play by the rules, to live life large with a damn-the-torpedoes attitude. Je ne sais quoi to the max. They’re expected to trash hotel rooms, be difficult and demanding backstage all while making millions upon millions of dollars. Turns out, Steven seems to be a pretty nice guy. The problem for me now, is that I can’t listen to an Aerosmith song without thinking of nice-guy Steven. It’s just not the same if there’s not a hint of out-of-control rock star.

And so when I read last week the alternative rock band, Linkin Park, is now a StormReady Supporter, my head almost spun. With Steven and Linkin Park acting so non-rock star-responsible lately, what could be next? [Insert crazy scenario here.]

But it’s true. Linkin Park is now officially recognized by the National Weather Service as the first rock band in the country to earn the designation StormReady Supporter. Not only that, but the band has also earned the distinction as the first traveling venue to meet the StormReady requirements.

Linkin Park poses with National Weather Service officials upon recognition of the band’s StormReady Supporter designation. Click for larger image. Image: NOAA/NWS

What’s this mean to you? A safer concert-going experience, hopefully. Since Linkin Park will now be promoting such key StormReady concepts as severe weather awareness, preparedness and safety, the threat of being surprised by severe weather is mitigated. In turn, this means that fans, employees and band members should enjoy a safer concert experience inside and especially, outside.

Was the Sugarland concert stage collapse two years ago the root of the Linkin Park quest to become StormReady? Don’t know, but there’s a picture of the stage collapse in an interview with Linkin Park’s tour director on The Weather Network’s website discussing the new StormReady Supporter designation.

What happened? You can read my YourWeatherBlog response to the stage collapse here, but the short story is that concert authorities at the Indiana State Fair complex were caught unaware of the approaching weather or, if not actually unaware then they failed to act in the face of approaching weather. The end result is that the stage was blown over, hundreds were injured and five people died. To add insult to the situation — at least as far as I’m concerned —, then-governor Mitch Daniels stated: “It’s not clear to me at this stage how anyone could have foreseen a sudden, highly localized gust of wind in one place.” This, despite the fact that the National Weather Service issued warnings two hours prior.

A concert-goer’s worst nightmare. Strong winds take down the stage at the Indiana State Fair in August, 2011 where hundreds were injured and five died. Video image: Unknown source from Yahoo.com

It’s clear Linkin Park doesn’t want a similar situation at one of its concerts. It’s also clear that, at least for a moment, Linkin Park has stepped away from its other-worldly rock star status and have focused on how they can take responsibility for the safety of the people at their concerts. Concerts are a business and year after year it’s been proved that weather is the number one interruption to business. In fact, about 90% of all presidentially-declared disasters are weather related, leading to around 500 deaths per year and nearly $14 billion in damage.* What’s surprising is that more bands haven’t already taken the steps to protect their business — and their fans. It’s 2013! The technology, the knowledge the experience are all there for the asking.

I’m not really disappointed when I hear nice-guy Steven singing an Aerosmith song, but I do think about him differently than I did before American Idol. But I’m certainly impressed now when I hear a Linkin Park song. I know that somewhere in that song, there’s a band who’s taking a step out of the ordinary to think about its fans and what they can do to make their concerts safer and more enjoyable.

* Statistic from StormReady.noaa.gov.

As I was listening to the two TV news anchors this morning talk about the first day of spring (“I thought today is the first day of spring.” “No, yesterday was the vernal equinox — so spring arrived yesterday — but today is the first full day of spring.”) I couldn’t help but think of all the craziness that’s been happening the last few weeks. By the way, the vernal equinox arrived yesterday morning at 6:02 CDT, making yesterday the first day of spring, but today the first full day of spring.

First, you’re aware there’s been a hit issued on Punxsutawney Phil, right? It’s no secret that the Pennsylvania celebrity rodent prognosticator blew his forecast of an early spring big time. With one late season snow storm after the next, one might assume the ground hog actually doesn’t know what he’s doing. The good folks at The Onion have finally had enough and you can read their coverage of the nearing end of Phil here.

Second, it’s snowing in Arkansas right now. Most of the snow is falling in Missouri, but the northwest corner of the state near Fayetteville is experiencing snowfall on this first day of spring. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect from northern Arkansas up into southwestern Missouri and over into southeastern Kansas. In addition to the prospect of up to eight inches of snow in some isolated areas (4-6 inches will be common) there is the risk of ice. The ice shouldn’t be a surprise as there’s a lot of warm air moving up from the Gulf, but the good news is the ice accumulation shouldn’t be too bad — if it happens at all.

A developing storm system will produce a broad swath of snow from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, severe weather across the Deep South should be expected. Impact: ImpactWeather’s Fred Schmude. Click for larger image.

Next, the National Weather Service is warning North Dakota and Minnesota residents along the Red River to prepare for one of the top 5 floods of recorded history. It’s turning out that the combination of the late season cold has postponed the seasonal snow melt which means the snow melt will coincide with springtime thunderstorms and heavy rain. Not good. The river crested at 41 feet in 2009 — the all-time record. But significant flooding occurred again in 2010 (36.99 feet) and in 2011 (38.75 feet). The National Weather Service flood outlook includes a 50% chance of a crest above 38 feet.

Additionally,  Nova Scotia’s getting hammered with yet another snow storm. This is happening right now and will continue tomorrow. Some areas could see as much as 12-18 inches of snow. With winds of 35 mph with higher gusts, a full-on blizzard is underway. OK, so maybe eastern Canada is used to late season snow storms and maybe this isn’t even a “late season snow storm” for them, but everybody wants the sun to shine and the temperatures to warm on the first day of spring!

But it’s the so-far unending progression of snow storm after snow storm moving across the mid-section of the U.S. that is gathering the headlines and with the next one penciled-in for this weekend there will be many more headlines to come.

When I last wrote for YourWeatherBlog on Monday, I described the high latitude block that would shove storm systems farther south across the U.S. than usual. I also mentioned the possibility of the block lingering for another 7-10 days which would mean we’d see more winter storms being driven much farther south than usual and it’s this scenario that will direct the next snow system that’s expected to drop perhaps as much as 10+ inches to the higher elevations of Virginia and Pennsylvania and widespread swaths of 3-5 and 4-6 inches from the Plains to the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic. At this time of year, any snowfall can be significant but the Appalachian Mountains will keep accumulations in the range of “only” 2-4 inches east of the mountains.

Snowfall from Colorado to the Chesapeake is expected in the coming days. Image: ImpactWeather. Click for larger image.

Here’s the situation: An upper-level storm system will move through a trough in the jet stream over the Rocky Mountains. As this disturbance continues to ride the jet stream eastward it will clash with the warm and unstable air mass already in place over many areas of the south and cold air being pulled southward across the Plains and Great Lakes. It’s a classic severe weather scenario that is not uncommon in the spring time but because the high latitude block is shoving the cold air so much farther south, we have to be concerned with late-season snowfall. And, it would appear, quite a bit of it. Heavy, wet snow, too. So be forewarned of the potential for not only difficult travel conditions but downed trees and tree limbs along with power outages.

And let’s not forget the severe weather potential across the Deep South. Though the coming snow will be the headliner, let’s not loose sight of the fact that we are now in the traditional springtime severe weather season. We had a record high of 90 degrees on Monday in Houston and though a weak cold front has passed across the South since then, by the time this next storm system arrives the heat and humidity will have returned…setting the stage for severe weather outbreaks across the southern states this weekend. At this time, widespread outbreaks are not expected.

So, there’s a hit on Punxsutawney Phil. With all the real craziness going on, who’s got time?

Two emails were waiting in my Inbox this morning. The first was from my cousin who lives between Boston and the coast. She said she wants to move to Texas. The second was from my aunt who lives a couple of houses away from the shore of Lake Winnipesaukee in central New Hampshire. She simply said, “ENOUGH!” Interestingly, she had been asking for snow a few months ago. Another cousin — a skier — in Montpelier, VT can never have too much snow. Maybe this time he’ll be saying, “Enough!” as well.

And there was another email waiting quietly in my Inbox this morning. This one was from our StormWatch team identifying the areas that will receive the heaviest snowfall. Lake Winnipesaukee may see as much as 20 inches, Montpelier just a little less and Boston maybe 6 to 8 inches of snowfall depending on the storm track. Let’s not forget the first full day of spring is this coming Thursday.

Cold and moisture are not at all limited in this late season scenario that will bring as much as 20 inches of snow to parts of New Hampshire and Vermont, unusual cold from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and a chance of severe weather – including a tornado risk – to the Deep South.  But that’s not all: Winds of up to 35 mph from Virginia to North Dakota will cause travel issues as blowing snow restricts visibility and will exacerbate already-high accumulations. Travel delays and interruptions to power and business should be expected. Image: ImpactWeather. Click for larger size.

The pattern is an interesting one, as a look at ImpactWeather’s “Day One” image to the left indicates. Not one, but two low pressure areas are combining to draw abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, abundant moisture from the Atlantic and abundant cold from the northern regions of Canada. Key to all of this is the high-latitude blocking pattern that is at its highest level in many years (blocking patterns can tie-up global weather patterns, but also shove weather systems much farther south — or north — than usual) and is showing no signs of breaking down with the passage of today’s double-barreled low pressure system. In fact, it looks like the block may survive another 10 days which would allow another couple of weather systems, including unseasonable cold, to plunge much farther south than one might expect for this time of year. ImpactWeather’s StormWatch Manager, Fred Schmude, was noting how temperatures in North Dakota and south-central Canada are some 30 degrees below normal. Temperatures in Europe and Russia are much below normal, too.

By Wednesday New England snowfall is expected to reach 20 inches in areas of central New Hampshire and Vermont. Image: ImpactWeather StormWatch. Click for larger image

I think my cousin is onto something about moving to Texas. We’re expecting near-record highs today in the middle 80s and today was the first day I’ve worn my summer motorcycle jacket since early November.

A band of ice from Illinois to New England – most areas 1/8 inch or less, but isolated totals to 1/4 inch – will be trapped between the rain to the east and south, and the snow to the west and north. Image: ImpactWeather. Click for larger size.

Even today there remain questions about what is likely to happen regarding the storm system moving across the Plains this morning and targeting the Midwest later tomorrow, the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday and then off the East Coast on Thursday, although the focus is becoming more clear than it was yesterday. It’s a complicated pattern as the Plains low follows quickly on the heels of a low pressure area now moving off to Nova Scotia as it brings snow to New England. Additionally, an area of strong high pressure moves into eastern Canada by the end of the week; it’s position and strength will directly influence the track of the low as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic in 72 hours time.

For now, the European numerical model and the American GFS model are showing some agreement in their solutions and this is the beginning of a hopeful consensus. However the two models vary significantly once the low moves off the coast. As mentioned above, there’s a lot going on: two low pressure areas and a following high. By the end of the week, the GFS takes the low offshore and then northeast in a pattern that could bring more snow — and potentially significant freezing rain — to the Northeast, especially Rhode Island and Massachusetts. Europe’s ECMWF model, on the other hand, takes the low almost due east from the coast of Virginia. Longtime readers of YourWeatherBlog know the ECMWF typically has the most reliable record, while the GFS sometimes flip-flops quite a bit before finally coming to a near-agreement with the Euro solution.

Lastly, all this talk of snow and freezing rain might lead one to think it’s still winter. Technically, it remains winter until the Vernal Equinox on the 20th of March when spring officially kicks off. However, we’re already seeing the first signs of spring across many areas of the country but especially southern states east of the Rocky Mountains where, out my Houston window, strong southerly winds are leading to temperatures that are quite mild and pleasant. But let’s not forget that with spring comes the high likelihood of severe weather and with this in mind, the National Weather Service’s Severe Weather Awareness Week is now underway. Visit the website for more information about severe weather, knowing your risk, building an emergency kit and an emergency plan and much more. Each day this week features a different topic.

Snowfall will continue across southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the Dakotas through Tuesday morning as low pressure pushes southward out of southern Canada. This system will continue to spread snow as well as gusty winds across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and eventually the East today through Wednesday. This system is expected to bring a swath of 4-8 inches of snow from the Northern Plains, Midwest, and southern Great Lakes Region today and into Tuesday with locally higher amounts of up to 10-14 inches possible. On Wednesday, the system will bring snowfall across the Ohio Valley and eventually offshore the East Coast with snowfall totals of 6-10 inches possible and isolated higher totals up to 1-2ft possible across the higher elevations of the Central Appalachians. Click for larger size. Image: ImpactWeather

The Euro model shows the potential for 18 inches of snow especially in the mountains of West Virginia. The colored scale is in millimeters of liquid equivalent (see scale in upper right), but the conversion to inches of snow is indicated by the bold numbers placed on the image. Click for larger size. Image: StormGeo

You can’t turn on the news today, or over the past few days, without hearing about the bitter cold now underway from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and New England. As I watched the “Today Show” yesterday morning the cold was such a great lead-off story that hosts Matt Lauer and Savannah Guthrie started the show outside, as bundled up as they could be. Oddly — but appropriately enough — Al Roker was inside with a cup of something hot and steamy. But it’s January, after all, and this is part of the deal (except on the Gulf Coast where we came close to 80 yesterday in Houston and will do the same today).

It was three years ago that an ice storm paralyzed portions of the UK. In this image, pedestrians were forced to crawl across the icy inclined street (while others stand and watch). Click to enlarge. Screen-grab image: BBC

However, because it’s January there’s still a lot of winter yet to come and some of it next week will be none too pretty. And what could be worse than bitter, miserable cold? What could be worse than heavy snowfall or even a blizzard? What’s the worst winter can throw at us? Ice. For northern regions of the country, really any region of the country, an ice storm can be as devastating as a hurricane in many regards. Enough ice can bring down trees which can then bring down power lines which can then lead to hundreds of thousands of people being without power, to say nothing of the treacherous travel conditions. Following an ice storm, travel conditions remain dangerous which makes repairs to property and the power grid excruciatingly slow.

It was four years ago this month when a winter storm brought two inches of ice accumulation and then as much as five inches of snow on top of the ice to the central Plains and Midwest. The one-two winter punch left two million people without power and was responsible for 55 deaths.

And so as we look at the situation developing next week, even though the risk at this time is classified as slight, we can’t afford to downplay the potential for significant consequences. So here’s what’s happening.

As indicated above, the risk is slight for now. Areas of light to moderate freezing rain are forecast to develop from eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota southeastward to eastern Missouri and Illinois Sunday morning, shifting quickly east across Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon and evening. Mixed freezing rain and sleet will then shift eastward across most of Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey next Monday morning as the freezing rain turns to rain for the Great Lakes and Ohio. Over Pennsylvania and New Jersey, the cold air will be more stubborn to move out, so the precipitation is forecast to mainly stay in the form of freezing rain though much of the day on Monday creating hazardous driving conditions. Image: ImpactWeather

First, a warm-up. Any icing situation needs warm air over sub-freezing air to allow liquid precipitation in the elevated warm air to freeze or begin to freeze as it falls through the colder air near the surface. That is indeed the case: high temperatures today in the lower 20s will warm to nearly 40 by Monday in places like Indianapolis and Columbus.

Next, moisture. There has to be precipitation, not just heavy clouds and gusty winds. The more precipitation available, the more ice accumulation possible. The icing on the cake (sorry) however, is a sudden drop in temperature while the precipitation is occurring. What starts as rain ends up as ice on the ground.

All these factors will be in place later this weekend as the next cold front will deliver a chilly blast to the Midwest. Behind the cold front, cold air will undercut the already-in-place warm air, creating the ideal conditions for accumulating ice as liquid precipitation aloft falls through sub-freezing air near the surface.

[The video of the English people doing the best they can to traverse an icy street can be seen here.]

Imagine the infrastructure of Port au Prince, a population density about a third greater than New York City*, the subsidence problems of New Orleans and a landscape like the Netherlands. What have you got? Jakarta. I mean, you know it’s bad when the Jakarta authorities are consulting with the Dutch for assistance in developing a plan to deal with the annual flooding.

Daily rainfall amounts could be as high as 1-2 inches across widespread areas. Locally however, isolated thunderstorms that are unusually vigorous or slow moving can produce 4-8 inches in a short period of time. This amount of rain will lead to street flooding, especially in northern Jakarta, where much of the city is below sea level. Poor drainage systems, in addition to other local factors in Jakarta, are likely to exacerbate any flooding that occurs.  Any additional rainfall over the next few days could cause additional flooding as many streams, rivers, and sewers are at capacity. Image: ImpactWeather

I don’t get it. No offense to the people of Port au Prince, but Jakarta is a modern country with impressive skylines and modern amenities. Something’s not right and it’s evident as the city slowly (actually, not so slowly) sinks and its population drowns. As an added slap in the face, it’s the rainy season presently and one thunderstorm has the potential to drop seven inches or more of rain in a very short period of time. Already some areas are under as much as six feet of water and more rain, some of it very heavy, is expected. This WSJ video was posted yesterday.

It’s not just Jakarta experiencing the heavy rainfall. The wet season is underway with the monsoon trough in place near the island of Java. Image: ImpactWeather.

In many areas subsidence is the curse of a growing and thriving society as more people consume more water from below the ground. The space previously occupied by water then compresses (or collapses) causing the ground (aka: the street, the foundation, the parking lot, the soccer field, the airport) to sink. Jakarta, the capital and largest city of Indonesia, is a subsidence nightmare. With more than 28 million people in the metro area (and we’ll assume most of them are using the recommended minimum of one gallon of water per day for drinking and even more for flushing and bathing, to say nothing of industrial uses), Jakarta’s water usage is contributing to 2-4 inches (5-10 centimeters) of subsidence per year. Some northern areas are sinking as much as 8 inches (almost 20 centimeters) per year. According to projections, 50% of Jakarta will lie below sea level in the next 10-20 years.

To combat this the Jakarta Coastal Defense Strategy has entered into an agreement with Dutch and Indonesian governments to create a feasibility study to build a dike on Jakarta Bay. The study is due in September and construction of the dike is expected to be complete by 2025. Similar discussions are underway in New York where, following Hurricanes Irene and Sandy, committees and panels have been formed regarding the feasibility of a dike (and other options) to protect low-lying New York City. A similar project to protect Galveston and the Houston Ship Channel, the so-called Ike Dike (after the devastating 2008 hurricane), has been all but abandoned because of the monumental cost.

The City of Jakarta is sinking. Can it be saved? Photo: Wikipedia

Let’s hope the Jakarta Bay dike is completed by 2025 (here in the U.S., that type of project might not get started until 2025). At the rate of 4-8 inches per year for 12 years, that’s an additional 48-96 inches (4-8 feet) of subsidence. Jakarta’s official elevation is 23 feet above sea level, but many areas are already below sea level.

Jakarta’s not alone. Bandung and Samarang join Jakarta as two other Indonesian cities that have been declared subsidence red zones by Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

* Population density of New York City: 27,012 per square mile; of Jakarta: 39,740 per square mile. (Data: Wikipedia)

There’s a flurry (forgive me) of activity in the ImpactWeather Operations Center this morning. First, there’s the discussion of a wintry mix of precipitation in Southeast Texas tonight. Granted, it’s the northern parts of Southeast Texas, but wintry precip is a big deal down here. Not only does it make travel conditions a nightmare (if it sticks, which it will not in the city) but it throws the general population into excitement-slash-panic mode. Not fun. Plus, it’s a real bear to forecast. And by that I mean that the conditions that bring about freezing precip are well known, but actually getting those conditions is very tricky this close to the Gulf Coast and its moderating influence on the local air mass. It’s like the difference between a cupcake and a scone — substitute a little yeast instead of baking powder and the outcome may surprise you. That said, if conditions come together just right, there could be sleet with potential accumulation (slight though it may be) in places just beyond the Houston Metro — like College Station and Huntsville — tonight and early tomorrow.

Next week’s forecast includes the possibility of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, especially for East Texas. Click for larger image. Image: ImpactWeather

Next, there’s the consideration of severe weather. I know, its wintertime and we typically don’t associate severe weather with wintertime patterns but, as we’ve discussed before, severe weather is based on contrasting air masses not what page the calendar is on. Any time a strong cold air mass pushes into a warm and humid air mass, we have to be cautious and remember that the terms cold and warm are relative. The situation this time is setting up for the mid-to-later period of next week and we’re looking at the possibility of a strong upper low pressure system gaining strength and moving across Texas from Mexico. As the system strengthens and moves eastward, strong — potentially severe — thunderstorms are possible, with damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and even tornadoes. As this is in the 7-8 day time period, confidence is low-to-moderate but already the numerical computer models are hinting at the threat of an elevated risk of tornadoes next week.

The snow is already flying for many areas of West Texas, including areas of the Chihuahuan Desert along the Rio Grande. Click for larger image. Image: ImpactWeather

And then there’s snow. You’d expect it up north (more on that in a moment), but you might not expect it way out in West Texas. That, however, is the case today and tomorrow as the I-10 corridor from Kerrville, TX westward to Deming, NM is expected to see snow. Higher elevations from as far south as Alpine and Ft. Davis, Texas to the Texas/New Mexico border region may be on the receiving end of 6 to 8 inches. Unfortunately the wind should be gusting as high as 20 mph which will produce blizzard to near-blizzard conditions in the wide open spaces of this desolate region. Warming temperatures and clearing conditions later tomorrow bring the threat of snow to an end, however travelers in places like Terlingua and Study Butte (popular Big Bend travel locations) are already locked down because Highway 118 across the Alpine pass is closed due to snow.

Not surprising for this time of year, but a major winter storm is expected later next week. Click for larger image. Image: ImpactWeather

As for up north, long-range models are beginning to show some consistency with a snow storm that will effect the Great Lakes over to the Northeast by the middle to end of next week. Additionally, the strong cold front trailing this system will bring the coldest temperatures of the season to middle and eastern portions of the U.S. Like the severe weather for the South, this system is a long way off and so confidence for now remains low. However, the combination of a strong cold front, plenty of moisture and very cold temperatures brings the growing possibility of a significant winter storm with blizzard conditions to this broad region. Also, let’s not forget that this early in the season most of the Great Lakes remain ice-free, allowing for lake-effect snow to remain a significant concern for the usual lake-effect snow belt locations.

We’ll keep a close eye on how this all develops. Even now there’s a fairly significant question of how next week’s storm system will take shape — will it be thanks to a major upper-level storm system or will it result from two smaller systems? We’ll have to wait and see. In the meantime, I’m in the mood for a scone…